2/23/19 Special Election Previews

Seven elections this Saturday, all of which will use a jungle primary system, where every candidate from every party will be on one ballot. If no candidate gets 50%, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff in 5 weeks.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 12 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Jake Halley (R), Christopher Turner (R)

Overview: We start in rural Northern Louisiana in a race between two Republicans in a heavily conservative district. The contest has been hotly contested, but businessman Christopher Turner is the favorite in a seat that opened up when incumbent Republican Kyle Ardoin became Secretary of State. Turner has outraised Jake Halley by more than 25,000 and also touts the endorsement of much of the establishment. Halley could have an outside shot in a low turnout race, as he does have campaign experience from a 2011 run for this seat.

Prediction: Christopher Turner wins with 60% of the vote.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 17 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Anthony Garcia (D), Rodney McFarland Sr. (D), Pat Moore (D), Rodney Welch (D)

Overview: We now move very slightly south of District 12 to the city of Monroe, where the majority African American District 17 opened up when Democrat Marcus Hunter resigned after being elected to a judicial job. Turnout looks low in this race, and as a result the final totals will be very tough to predict. Ouachita Parish Commissioner Pat Moore, Community College official Anthony Garcia, former school board president Rodney McFarland, and insurance agent Rodney Welch are all running for the seat. Any of the four could realistically finish top 2 in what will likely be a runoff situation. In that case, however Moore would be most likely to be the top finisher, followed potentially be McFarland or Garcia

Prediction: Pat Moore (30%) and Rodney McFarland (26%) advance to a runoff.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 18 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Natashia Carter Benoit (D), Jeremy LaCombe (D), Bill Spencer (D), Gary “Sprout” Spillman (D), Tammi Fabre (R), Jason Fowler Jr. (R)

Overview: Next, we head to just west of Baton Rouge, in one of the few races which will be highly contested between the two parties today. This seat opened up when Democrat Major Thibaut resigned to become Pointe Coupee Parish President. The seat will be a major GOP target, as Trump won election 57–40 here in 2016. However, the district has statewide Democratic leanings, as Democratic Governor Jon Bel Edwards won by almost 40 points in 2015. 4 Democrats and 2 Republicans are running today, which means a runoff seems quite likely. On the Republican side, Chamber of Commerce member Tammi Fabre is the only serious contender and seems fairly strong, although the presence of another, albeit fairly unknown, Republican, Jason Fowler Jr., make it very unlikely for her to win outright. On the Democratic side, Attorney Jeremy LaCombe is the establishment choice and is definitely the strongest potential general election contender. West Baton Rouge Parish Commissioner Gary “Sprout” Spillman could also be aided by his elected office experience, while attorney Nathashia Carter-Benoit isn’t a very strong candidate but will be aided by being the only black candidate in a 37% non-white electorate (based on early vote numbers). Bill Spencer could also surprise on the Democratic side. Overall, the total numbers might tilt towards Democrats given Early Vote numbers by party registration, with Democrats making up 60% of voters.

Prediction: Tammi Fabre (35%) and Jeremy LaCombe (25%) advance to a runoff.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 26 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Sandra Franklin (D), Ed Larvadain III (D)

Overview: Next up, another Democratic defense in Central Louisiana, although this one is not being contested by any Republicans. The seat opened up when Jeff Hall resigned to become the mayor of Alexandria. This one should be a tight contest between two decent candidates in Rapides School Board Member Sandra Franklin and Alexandria City Councilman Ed Larvadain. Either of the two could come out on top, as they don’t have any major ideological differences. However, Larvadain does have a stronger base in the city of Alexandria and therefore I would peg him as a mild favorite

Prediction: Ed Larvadain wins with 55% of the vote.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 27 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Richard Kretzsinger (D), Mike Johnson (R)

Overview: We now head to the neighboring district to District 27, which is considerably more rural and strongly Republican, having voted for Donald Trump by 80 points in 2016. The seat opened up when Lowell Hazel, who hasn’t faced a Democratic challenge this decade, resigned to become a judge. There is, however, a Democrat going for this seat in Richard Kretzsinger, although he is a massive underdog against retired Republican judge Mike Johnson. There are some suburban parts of the district which could be elastic, but the district is far too rural for Kretzsinger to have anything short of astronomically small odds.

Rating and Prediction: We rate this race as Safe R. I’ll say Mike Johnson wins by 40 points.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 47 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Ryan Bourriaque (R), Ruben Rivera Jr. (R)

Overview: We now move to the Southwestern coast of Louisiana along the Gulf of Mexico, with the big theme of this race being oil resources. The seat opened up when Republican Bob Hensgens was elected to the State Senate. Ryan Borriaque, the Chief Administrator of Cameron Parish, has raised significantly more money and has broader establishment support. However, Ruben “Ben” Rivera has run a decent campaign largely focused on bringing back oil jobs, which has given him significant industry support. Borriaque is the slight favorite, but I sense an upset here.

Prediction: Ruben Rivera wins with 55% of the vote.

Louisiana House of Representatives District 62 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Jerel Giarusso (D), Tarries Greenup (D), Richard Howell (D), Jonathan Loveall (D), Dennis Aucoin (R), Roy Adams (I)

Overview: We head back to the Baton Rouge area for another competitive race, one which could be a rare Democratic pickup opportunity, this one east of the city. The district is actually slightly more Democratic than House District 18, but Trump won here by the same 57–40 margin. However, Republicans do have better party infrastructure here, and the early vote has been evenly split between the two parties. The seat opened up when Kenny Havard won election to serve as parish president for West Feliciana. Only one Republican is running in this race, former East Feliciana Parish Commissioner Dennis Aucoin, and it seems possible he could win outright or at minimum easily win a place in a runoff. On the Democratic side, four candidates are running, and three of them have legitimate shots. Teacher Jonathan Loveall is the slight favorite, as he has the highest establishment support. Jerel Giarusso is also strong, but could be competing for the same types of voters as Loveall. Finally, similarly to in House District 18, an African American candidate could defeat difficult odds by taking advantage of the fact that the district is 43% African American. That candidate is Tarries Greenup, whose wife recently ran for Secretary of State. However, so far just 25% of the early vote has been non-white, which hurts Greenup’s chances. An independent, Roy Adams, and another Democrat, Richard Howell, could further split the vote.

Prediction: Dennis Aucoin (45%) and Jonathan Loveall (25%) advance to a runoff.