3/13/18 Special Elections Preview

Congressional Special Elections

Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Conor Lamb (D), Rick Saccone (R), Drew Miller (L)

Overview: We start just south of Pittsburgh with our first Congressional special election of 2018, in a red district where the race has become surprisingly even. This seat opened up in December, when newspaper investigations revealed that Tim Murphy, the Republican representative for this seat, had urged a woman he was having an extramarital affair with to get an abortion. As a staunchly pro-life Republican, Murphy was especially damaged by this given the obvious hypocrisy in asking for an abortion. Murphy was originally considering retiring at the end of his term, but was pushed out and forced to resign immediately by Paul Ryan and Republican house leadership. This seat went to Donald Trump by a wide margin of 58–38 and hasn’t been contested by Democrats since 2012, when they lost 64–36. As a result, nobody really expected this race to be close at the start, with a win in a district like this being viewed as indicative of a wave election. However, the Republicans didn’t do themselves any favors when they selected a very weak candidate to contest this seat. Pennsylvania uses a system where parties select candidates through conventions rather than primaries for special elections, and three candidates attempted to win the Republican nomination. State Senators Guy Reschenthaler and Kim Ward were both viewed as strong, establishment-friendly politicians who would win the seat easily. However, the man who emerged from the convention with the nomination was State Representative Rick Saccone, a man with a reputation of being a loose cannon. Saccone has run on a very conservative platform, saying that he was “Trump before Trump”, which isn’t a terrible idea in a district where in theory Trump should have higher favorables than unfavorables. Saccone also has military experience, which seems to add to a candidate profile that should be at least decent on paper in this particular district. However, the problem with Saccone has been his complete lack of understanding of how to campaign effectively in a big race. His poor fundraising has been a disaster for Republicans, who have been forced to rescue his campaigns with millions in outside funding. Meanwhile, Saccone is also having trouble exciting Republicans in the district, especially those outside of the pro-Trump Republican base. The Democrats are much happier with their candidate, former United States Attorney Conor Lamb. The 33 year old was selected from a wide field of candidates on the Democratic side, and was generally regarded as the best equipped of the major Democratic candidates to pick off both frustrated voters who backed Trump in 2016 and also secure the typical Democratic base. Lamb has is pro-gun and also said that he is personally against abortion, although it’s unclear whether that will affect his votes in Congress. Lamb is also a former marine, and seems to have a strong crossover appeal, especially among conservative voters who are part of unions. Lamb has the support of all the district’s largest unions, which is unsurprising given Saccone’s stance against unions. This union support is a big deal in this area and I think Lamb could certainly pick off Trump voters in a district where registered Democrats still outnumber registered Republicans. This is something very common in Western Pennsylvania, where Democratic voters have started to feel disillusioned with the national Democratic party over the last 10–20 years. As a result, it seems that people would be willing to vote Democratic again if they had a candidate who they believed would represent them. Democrats believe Lamb is this candidate, as he has led Saccone in three out of the four polls in March, including one released today which gives him a 51–45 lead. Lamb has also received support from former Vice President and Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, a very popular figure in this area, drumming up more support and enthusiasm in what had already been a very strong campaign. Meanwhile, Donald Trump visited the district on Saturday, mostly hosting a reelection campaign rally but also working to help Saccone build support. Saccone still has more money in the bank, with national Democrats largely staying out of the race, but Lamb has been much more organized, leaving a clear tossup as voters head to the polls on Tuesday. Libertarian Drew Gray Miller is on the ballot as well, but doesn’t figure to have too much success in a district that only gave 3.5% to third parties in 2018. The question of whether this election really matters considering redistricting in Pennsylvania is one that will be asked a lot on Tuesday night and the answer is yes. First, Conor Lamb will be moved into the new 17th district, and will be facing Republican incumbent Keith Rothus. If Lamb is also an incumbent, it gives Democrats a much better chance at a key house seat. Secondly, Rick Saccone will be moved into the new 14th district, which will be very red. Saccone will breeze to election in 2018 if he wins this special but could face a strong primary challenge if he loses. And finally, as Joe Biden has pointed out, Lamb winning this race will scare Republican incumbents and cause more retirements, which could hand Democrats the House.

Rating and Prediction: We rate this race as a Tossup. I’ve been working on a prediction model and am testing a formula today. That formula gave me a Lamb win by .2%, and while I don’t expect to get it right on the first try, I’ll trust my numbers and go with that.

State Legislative General Elections

Tennessee State Senate District 14 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Gayle Jordan (D), Shane Reeves (R)

Overview: Next, we head to Middle Tennessee for a rather intriguing legislative special election. On paper this shouldn’t really be close. This seat, a 70–26 Trump seat which opened when Republican Jim Tracy took a job in the Trump administration, should be an easy defense for Republicans. However, Republicans have been concerned about this district, given the fact that a similar, the 72–23 Trump 17th district, only went 51.3–48.7 to the Republican candidate in that race. However, a key part of the result in that race was an extreme Republican candidate who wasn’t incredibly popular with a partially suburban district. Pharmacist Shane Reeves profiles as a much stronger candidate, and he has been well aware of the danger he is in, campaigning strongly in recent days. Meanwhile, Gayle Jordan is also running a strong campaign for the Democrats. Jordan was the nominee in 2016 and was defeated 75–25 by Tracy. Democrats believe Jordan will definitely well overperform that number in this special election. It seems that this a concern that Republicans have as well, as they have launched strong attacks against Jordan for being an atheist who runs a “recovering from religion” organization. This may seem weird to those of you who have never lived in the South, but in a very religious area this will make a massive difference. Tennessee conservatives will be more motivated to turn out, giving Republicans support they desperately need. Non-religious Democrats will also be motivated, but they are much smaller in numbers. Overall, this should be enough to give Reeves the win

Rating and Prediction: We rate this district as Likely R. I’ll predict Reeves wins by 15 points.

Nonpartisan General Election Runoffs

Mississippi Senate District 60 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Fred Shanks, Bob Morrow

Overview: We head now to east of Jackson, Mississippi, where two Republicans will face off in a runoff to see who takes over this conservative district. Mississippi special elections are officially nonpartisan but both candidates are definitely Republicans. In the first round, Pharmacist Fred Shanks took a lead over the more establishment candidate in Rankin County Commissioner Bob Morrow 43–39. The remaining vote was mostly for a Democratic candidate in Morris Mock Jr. and a small amount for a white nationalist Republican. I would guess that if any of these voters turn out in the runoff, they would probably go against the Republican establishment and to Shanks, making him the favorite in this race. The winner of this runoff wins the seat.

Prediction: Shanks wins with 55% of the vote.

Primary Runoffs

Arkansas State Senate District 16 Republican Runoff (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Breanne Davis, Bob Bailey

Overview: This Northern Arkansas seat should have a very interesting runoff tomorrow, given that School Board member Breanne Davis and businessman Bob Bailey had very similar totals in the primary, 43 and 41 respectively. Davis will be considered an extremely slight favorite to win this seat, given that she has slightly less ground to gain and also is more ideologically similar to the other Republican from the primary, Luke Heffley. The winner faces Democrat Teresa Gallegos in May.

Prediction: Davis wins with 52 percent of the vote.

South Carolina House District 69 Republican Runoff (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Chris Wooten, Anne Marie Eckstorm Green

Overview: There are two candidates left in the running for this seat near Lexington, South Carolina. Retired police officer Chris Wooten is heavily favored, having received 42% of the vote in the primary. The other candidate in this race is school board member Anne Marie Eckstorm Green, who starts at a major disadvantage, only getting 23% of the vote in round 1. Wooten is also the pick of the much of the establishment, which makes it unlikely he won’t pick up 8% more to reach 50. No other candidates are on the ballot for the general election, so the winner of this runoff essentially wins the general election for this seat.

Prediction: Wooten wins with 60% of the vote.