3/2/21 Special Election Previews

Alabama State Senate District 26 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Kirk Hatcher (D), William Green (R)

Overview: We start in Montgomery County, Alabama, where Democrats will look to defend a deeply Democratic seat which includes much of the city of Montgomery. This seat opened up when incumbent Democrat David Burkette resigned after pleading guilty to pocketing campaign funds. While precinct data issues makes finding exact presidential numbers difficult in Alabama, Burkette did win his last election by 60 points, so it would be shocking if this seat was not held by Democrats. The district is also 76% Black, so it isn’t particularly surprising that both parties selected black nominees for this race. The Democratic candidate is State Representative Kirk Hatcher of District 78, which is located entirely in this district, spanning from close to downtown Montgomery to the North end of the city. Hatcher’s existing office and community connections will likely help him have an easier time making sure his voters come out and vote in what will undoubtedly be a low turnout election. On the Republican side, former Montgomery City Councilman William Green is the nominee, and he seems to be an unusually strong candidate for a seat this blue. According to a profile by the Alabama Reporter, Green is the founder of the Montgomery County Minority GOP and is a regular guest on local radio programs advocating for conservative ideas. He is also an ordained minister and Navy veteran, completing an impressive background. I would be shocked if he managed to win, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he cut the margin down a little in this race.

Rating and Prediction: Safe D. Kirk Hatcher wins by 50 points.

California State Senate District 30 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Sydney Kamlager (D), Daniel Lee (D), Cheryl Turner (D), Tiffani Jones (R), Joe Lisuzzo (R), Renita Duncan (I), Ernesto Huerta (P&F)

Overview: We now move to another deeply blue district, this one stretching from South Los Angeles into Culver City, Ladera Heights, and Westmont. This district opened up when incumbent Democrat Holly Mitchell was elected to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, and is actually the first we have 2020 presidential numbers for. Joe Biden unsurprisingly won this district by an 84–12 margin. Democratic Assemblywoman Sydney Kamlager, who represents the Western half of this district, is the heavy favorite to eventually win this seat, but the main question is whether she can do that outright tonight with 50% of the vote. Much of that will depend on the performance of the other Democratic candidates, Culver City Councilman Daniel Lee and Attorney Cheryl Turner, can manage to drum up significant support. This doesn’t seem extremely likely, given that the California Democratic Party voted 93% in favor of endorsing Kamlager. It also doesn’t seem likely that Republicans Tiffani Jones and Joe Lisuzzo, who both work in business, will gain much support, given Donald Trump’s total of just 12% in this district. That leaves only one remaining candidate to bring Kamlager’s vote share down, community organizer Ernesto Huerta, representing the Peace and Freedom Party. Huerta could have some success as the only Hispanic candidate in a 49% Hispanic district, but the Peace and Freedom label will likely keep him from getting a large enough total to pull Kamlager’s down.

Rating and Prediction: Safe. Sydney Kamlager wins with 55% of the vote.

Connecticut State Senate District 27 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Patricia Billie Miller (D), Joshua Esses (R), Brian Merlen (I)

Overview: We finish today’s legislative previews in southwestern Connecticut, with State Senate district encompassing the lower half of Stamford as well as the coastline along the town of Darien. Hillary Clinton won this district, which opened up when incumbent Democrat Carlo Leone took a job with Governor Ned Lamont, 66–30 in 2016 and I suspect it stayed more or less the same in 2020. Leone won by a 64–36 margin in the 2020 House race. It is also our third straight majority-minority district of the day, with just 47% of residents identifying as White. State Representative Patricia Billie Miller is the Democratic nominee, continuing today’s theme of Democrats nominating existing legislators seeking a promotion. Interestingly, if all 3 were elected, we would see a domino effect of 3 more special elections in essentially the same area in the coming weeks. Miller will face Republican Attorney Joshua Esses tonight, a political newcomer who has focused most of his campaign on tax issues, which could play well in highly wealthy Darien, but is unlikely to do as well in the parts of Stamford in this district. A third candidate, Brian Merlen, is running an independent campaign largely focused on opioid issues. Given the considerable Republican downballot strength in Connecticut, I suspect Esses will overperform the district’s lean, as most Connecticut Republicans typically do. However, even though you never know with some of the recent Connecticut upsets, I think this will be a step too far for the GOP.

Rating and Prediction: Patricia Billie Miller wins by 20 points

Mayoral Races

St Louis, MO: With incumbent Lyda Krewson (D), not seeking re-election, several candidates will face off in an approval voting, in which voters can vote for as many candidates as they want, with the top two advancing to a runoff.

Tuscaloosa, AL: Incumbent Walt Maddox (D) faces challengers from both the left and right.

Chattanooga, TN: With incumbent Andy Berke (D) not running again, there will be 15 candidates on the ballot to succeed him

Burlington, VT: Incumbent Miro Weinberger (D) is in serious danger of being ousted by city councillor Max Tracy (Progressive Party), with a third candidate, city councillor Ali Dieng (I) having an outside shot.