4/13/21 Special Election Previews
Connecticut House of Representatives District 112 (Republican Defense)
Candidates: Nick Kapoor (D), Tony Scott (R), William Furrier (I)
Overview: We start in Southeastern Connecticut, in a blue-trending district which includes the town of Monroe and part of Newtown. This district lurched left in 2020, going from an 11 point Trump win in 2016 to a district Biden won by .3% in 2020. With that being said, Republicans are much stronger downballot here, with incumbent Republican J.P. Sredzinski not even facing a Democratic challenger since 2014. Sredzinski resigned in February due to the demands of the legislature, creating a slight opening for Democrats to make inroads in this district. The Democratic candidate looking to do so is Nick Kapoor, a Monroe School Board member. Kapoor has emphasized his community connections and focused his campaign on being an accessible Representative. Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is Monroe Councilman Tony Scott, who is running similarly on his community qualifications as well as limiting the role of government. Finally, Independent Party candidate William Furrier, a former Newtown Selectman, is running on a Libertarian platform that leans conservative. Without Furrier providing a degree of uncertainty, I would call this a Likely R race. However, with a lot unknown, I say this race leans towards Scott with the potential for an upset in the right circumstances for Kapoor.
Rating and Prediction: Lean R. Tony Scott wins by 5%
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Hillsborough 21 (Republican Defense)
Candidates: Wendy Thomas (D), Bill Boyd (R), Stephen Hollenberg (I)
Overview: For our second and final race, we stay in New England, heading north to Southern New Hampshire for a special election in the town of Merrimack, located in between larger cities Manchester and Nashua. Joe Biden won the district by a healthy 6% margin, a remarkable 13% leftward trend from Donald Trump’s 7% margin in 2016. Like many New Hampshire districts this is a multi-member district, with voters in Merrimack voting for 8 separate representatives in a normal year. This specific vacancy belonged to Republican Dick Hinch, who passed away due to COVID-19 in December just days after being elected Speaker of the House. In 2020, on a local level this district ran contrary to the Presidential trend, as the balance of seats shifted from 4–4 in 2018 to 7–1 Republican, with three incumbent Democrats losing their seats. One of those Democrats was Wendy Thomas, who is now seeking to return to the state house in this special election. Of the 3 Democratic incumbents who lost, Thomas was the closest to surviving, missing out on the final seat by just 91 votes. As a result, New Hampshire Democrats view her as a strong candidate despite the loss and have poured money into her campaign, giving her a spending advantage of $12,000 in the race over her Republican opponent, town Councilman Bill Boyd, who is running on an establishment conservative platform of lowering taxes and fiscal responsibility. Thomas has spent much of her campaign focusing on improving the drinking water in Merrimack, which has been a key local issue as of late. A third candidate, Stephen Hollenberg, is running an Independent campaign on the goal of calming political tensions. Although his impact will be hard to judge, he could conceivably take some of the voters who voted for Biden and downballot Republicans in 2020, a group Boyd desperately needs. I see this race as a tossup, but I think there are some signs for optimism for Democrats here, as Thomas seems to be a strong enough candidate to pull off a victory in a Biden +6 district without popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu on the ballot.
Rating and Prediction: Tossup. Wendy Thomas wins by 2%
Other Races
Chattanooga, TN Mayor: Tim Kelly (I) takes on Kim White (R). Kelly is a Democratic-leaning independent.
Coral Gables, FL Mayor: 3 candidates face off in this 53% Hispanic city just outside Miami.
