4/5 Special Election Previews
Competitive Races
California’s 22nd Congressional District (Republican Defense)
Candidates: Connie Conway (R), Eric Garcia (D), Elizabeth Heng (R), Lourin Hubbard (D), Mike Maher (R) Matt Stoll (R)
Overview: We start with the special election to replace Devin Nunes in California’s 22nd Congressional District, a Trump +6 district in the Central Valley. This district was absolutely sliced up in redistricting, so there is little interest among big name candidates in seeking this victory. Republicans feel good about former Assembly Minority Leader Connie Conway’s chances of wrapping up this race by clearing the 50% hurdle to avoid a runoff, but call me skeptical on that one. She has heavy establishment backing, but has been significantly outraised by 2 other Republicans, 2018 candidate Elizabeth Heng and Air Force veteran Matt Stoll. Meanwhile, Navy veteran and FBI agent Mike Maher has raised the same total as Conway. Fundraising should be a key factor in turning people out to vote in what will likely be a low turnout contest. Democrat Eric Garcia, A Marine veteran, has similar numbers to Heng and Stoll and could have a good shot at securing a runoff spot assuming Conway does not reach 50%. State Water Department employee Lourin Hubbard is the other Democrat in the race and will also have a shot, as Garcia will also be putting attention into a primary challenge of Jim Costa during the regular cycle. The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that a 4 way split with 2 competitive Democratic candidates allows Garcia and Hubbard to take the top 2 spots. However, the inverse is also possible, though that would take a massive deflation of Democratic turnout. This special election is very weird so anything could really happen because we just don’t know who will show up to vote for what is virtually a lame duck term in a district that won’t exist in 8 months. My gut says we get a runoff between a Republican and a Democrat, and I’d peg Conway and Garcia in that matchup.
Rating and Prediction: Likely R. Connie Conway (35%) and Eric Garcia (25%).
Georgia House District 45 (Republican Defense)
Candidates: Pamela Alayon (R), Dustin McCormick (D), Mitchell Kaye (R), Darryl Wilson (R)
Overview: In another edition of “Why is this election necessary?” we head to the Atlanta suburbs for a special election to replace Republican Matt Dollar. This district flipped to Joe Biden in 2020 by a slim margin but Republicans maintain an advantage downballot. This district not only will not exist after redistricting, the winner will likely not even participate in a legislative session, as the legislative term has already ended. Presumably, businessman Dustin McCormick, the lone Democratic candidate in the race, will take the first spot in a potential runoff. However, Georgia Democrats may be running more of an aggressive turnout game than Republicans for this seat, which could give McCormick a decent shot of flipping this seat blue. That being said, I think the runoff is more likely, with any of the three Republicans carrying a solid shot of advancing. If I had to pick the most likely person to go forward with McCormick I would take Mitchell Kaye, a former State Representative
Rating and Prediction: Lean R. Dustin McCormick (45%) and Mitchell Kaye (30%) advance to a runoff.
Safe Seats
CA AD11- Lori Wilson (D) is unopposed
CA AD62- Four Democrats face off in search of 2 runoff spots
CA AD80- One of Georgette Gomez (D) or David Alvarez (D) should wrap up this San Diego seat tonight.
PA HD19- Aerion Abney (D) is unopposed
PA HD24- Martell Covington (D) is heavily favored over Todd Kroger (R)
PA HD116- Robert Schnee (R) is heavily favored over Amilcar Arroyo (D)
