4/6/21 Special Election Previews

Oklahoma State Senate District 22 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Jake Merrick (R), Molly Ooten (D)

Overview: We start in a Republican district which stretches from the far Northwestern suburbs of Oklahoma City all the way to part of the city itself. This district, which backed Donald Trump 68–25 in 2016, was vacated when Republican Stephanie Bice was elected to represent Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives. Businessman Jack Merrick, who unsuccessfully ran for that seat in 2020, is the Republican nominee and is running a hardline conservative campaign. Speech pathologist Molly Ooten is the Democratic nominee, and will look to pull off a stunning upset for her party. While it is true that Oklahoma Democrats have had their fair share of shocking upsets in recent special elections, most of those came at the height of former Governor Mary Fallin’s unpopularity. Additionally, Bice won her last election here, in 2018, by a 68–32 margin. As a result, it would surprise me if Merrick doesn’t win handily.

Rating and Prediction: Safe R. Jake Merrick wins by 20 points.

Wisconsin State Senate District 13 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: John Jagler (R), Melissa Winkler (D), Ben Schmitz (American Solidarity Party), Spencer Zimmerman (Trump Conservative Party)

Overview: Next, we head to Wisconsin, in a district which includes outer suburbs of both Madison and Milwaukee as well as rural areas in between. This district, which went for Trump 58–37 in 2016 and probably by a little bit less in 2020, opened up when Republican Scott Fitzgerald was elected to represent Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District. The Republican nominee is Jake Jagler, an Assemblyman who represents the suburban Madison portion of the district, as well as the more centrally-located rural communities. Jagler representing a large part of this district, and specifically the suburban portion which would be liable to swing left, is a major benefit for Republicans. On the Democratic side, teacher Melissa Winkler would need to benefit from unusually high Democratic turnout due to the statewide Superintendent race which is on the ballot today, as well as two conservative independents splitting the Republican vote. Both these things seem unlikely, and I would expect a similar result to Fitzgerald’s 59–41 victory here in 2018.

Rating and Prediction: Safe R. John Jagler wins by 20 points.

Wisconsin State Assembly District 89 (Republican Defense)

Candidates: Karl Jaeger (D), Elijah Behnke (R)

Overview: Next, we move to Northeastern Wisconsin, with a district that actually borders Michigan. This district, which supported Trump 63–32 in 2016, opened up after Republican John Nygren resigned last year. Nygren was a consistently strong candidate, winning by a 68–32 margin in 2020, almost definitely outrunning Trump in the district. The man he beat in 2020 was Karl Jaeger, who is seeking the office again this year. However, he will have a very hard time defeating businessman Elijah Behnke, especially if turnout in the Superintendent race is low.

Rating and Prediction: Safe R. Elijah Behnke wins by 30 points

California State Assembly District 79 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: Marco Contreras (R), Aeiramique Glass Blake (D), Leticia Munguia (D), Shane Parmely (D), Akilah Weber (D)

Overview: Next up is a race in San Diego, California, with four Democrats and one Republican competing for this district, which went for Hillary Clinton 64–30. The one Republican is businessman Marco Contreras, who has run a strong campaign focusing a lot on his story of immigration from Tijuana. Assuming there is vote splitting on the Democratic side, Contreras will likely take one of the runoff spots. Another favorite for the runoff, and the only candidate with a shot of crossing 50% today, is La Mesa City Councilwoman Akilah Weber, who is the daughter of former incumbent Shirley Weber, now serving as the California Secretary of State. Weber has the official California Democratic Party endorsement, but is facing a decent challenge from the left by union organizer Leticia Munguia, who could snatch a runoff spot with a really good day. Criminal justice advocate Aeiramique Glass Blake and teacher Shane Parmely could also get a few votes, but appear less likely to make the runoff.

Prediction: Akilah Weber and Marco Contreras advance to a runoff with 40% and 35%, respectively.

Missouri State House District 45 (Democratic Defense)

Candidates: David Tyson Smith (D), Glenn Nielsen (L)

Overview: Next we head to Missouri, with a special election in one of the only four Democratic-held districts not located in either the St. Louis or Kansas City metro area. This district, which opened up after incumbent Kip Kendrick resigned to take a job with a State Senator, is entirely in the city of Columbia, and includes parts of the University of Missouri. It also backed Hillary Clinton by a 60–32 margin, with Republicans not contesting the seat at the local level in the last decade. That trend continues this time, with no Republican running in the special election to replace Kendrick. As a result, Libertarian Glenn Nielsen will be the de facto Republican candidate, albeit with less of party apparatus behind him. On the Democratic side, Attorney David Tyson Smith will be the heavy favorite to hold this seat. If he does so, he would become the first Black representative from outside St. Louis or Kansas City. I’d put a lot of money on him to make that history tonight.

Rating and Prediction: Safe D. David Tyson Smith wins by 30 points.

Other Races

Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Education: In a statewide race in Wisconsin, Democrat Jill Underly faces Deb Kerr, who identifies as a Democrat who voted for Biden but is getting most of her support from Republicans due to her school reopening stances.

Anchorage, AK Mayor: 14 candidates face off with a runoff election almost inevitable.

Fort Collins, CO Mayor: Democrats are looking to take control of this open office, currently held by Republican Wade Troxell

Aurora, IL Mayor: Moderate Republican Mayor Richard Irvin, who won in this blue city thanks to successfully courting moderate white voters and black voters, faces two opponents in his re-election bid.

Peoria, IL Mayor: Democrats are looking to take over this office is what has been a hotly contested campaign between Rita Ali (D) and Jim Montelongo (R)

Rockford, IL Mayor: Democratic Mayor Tom McNamara is the favorite for re-election .

St. Louis, MO Mayor: Democrats Tishaura Jones and Cara Spencer will face off in a runoff election

Omaha, NE Mayor: Incumbent Jean Stothert (R) will learn her Democratic general election rival in a top 2 primary today.