8/3/21 Special Election Previews
Ohio’s 11th Congressional District (Democratic Defense)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Martin Alexander, John Barnes Jr., James Jerome Bell, Shontel Brown, Seth Corey, Jeff Johnson, Will Knight, Pamela Pinkney, Isaac Powell, Lateek Shabazz, Tariq Shabazz, Shirley Smith, Nina Turner
Overview: We start in a district which spans from parts of Cleveland into Akron, in what looks like a major battle between two wings of the national Democratic primary. The favorite to win the primary right now is Nina Turner, a former State Senator from Cleveland who served as campaign chair for Bernie Sanders’ run for President in 2020. Like Sanders, Turner is on the left wing of the Democratic Party, probably in fact to the left of the Vermont Senator himself. However, some of Turner’s comments about the establishment wing of the party, in particular harsh words about Joe Biden, have earned her a strong distaste from many party line Democrats. As a result, there has been an effort to consolidate establishment support around Shontel Brown, a Cuyahoga County commissioner, who is seen as a more amenable choice for the president’s agenda. National figures have made their presence felt on both sides: Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cori Bush, and Jamie Raskin are among the prominent progressive Democrats backing Turner, while Brown has been endorsed by Hillary Clinton along with many prominent Congressional Black Caucus members including Jim Clyburn, Bennie Thompson, and Joyce Beatty. Interestingly, local endorsements have leaned a bit towards Turner, although both have strong local support. Turner has held a consistent lead over Brown in polling from the race, although that lead has clearly been shrinking as the anti-Turner vote solidifies around Brown. Additionally early ballot return rates have been low accross the board, but slightly better in some of the areas Brown needs to do well in. I do think it will be close, but ultimately this race is Turner’s to lose.
Prediction: Nina Turner wins by 5%
Republican Primary
Candidates: Laverne Gore, Felicia Washington Ross
Overview: On the Republican side, turnout is likely to be abysmal, but Laverne Gore, a businesswoman who ran for this seat in 2020, is very likely to win given her endorsement from the state party.
Prediction: Laverne Gore wins by 40%
Ohio’s 15th Congressional District (Republican Defense)
Republican Primary
Candidates: John Adams, Mike Carey, Eric M. Clark, Thad Cooperrider, Ruth Edmonds, Ron Hood, Thomas Hwang, Stephanie Kunze, Jeff LaRe, Bob Peterson, Omar Tarazi
Overview: Next we move to a crowded Republican race in a district which includes both left-trending Columbus suburbs and right-trending rural Central Ohio counties. If the other race is a test of the influence of Bernie Sanders and left-wing Democrats, this race is a test of the influence of Donald Trump. The favorite in this race is Mike Carey, a lobbyist who has run a populist campaign and received an endorsement from the former President. However, Carey faces stiff competition, with State Senator Bob Peterson at times running to his right, although taking a more pro-establishment approach. State Representative Jeff LaRe is running as more of a moderate Main Street style Republican, and has the endorsement of Steve Stivers, the former Congressman. However, he may have some trouble fully consolidating the moderate lane as State Senator Stephanie Kunze has displayed even more moderate tendencies while representing her Columbus district. While Kunze earned the endorsement of the Franklin County Republican Party, her stances will likely make it hard to win over the rest of this district. Businessman Tom Hwang will also likely receive some votes, and could have a decent shot based on his high fundraising. One final candidate of note is former State Representative Ron Hood, a libertarian Conservative who will likely receive some votes thanks to backing from Rand Paul. Overall, while Carey may be slight favorite, I’m inclined to predict a Peterson win, replicating Jake Ellzey’s special election win over the weekend where a more establishment conservative builds a bridge between party leaders and the pro-Trump base.
Predicition: Bob Peterson wins by 2%
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Greg Betts, Allison Russo
Overview: Not much doing in this race. State Representative Allison Russo has consolidated Democratic support well and should move on handily.
Prediction: Allison Russo wins by 30%.
Other Races
In Washington, there are top two races for Mayor in Tacoma and Seattle, while in Kansas, there are similar top two contests in Kansas City, Topeka, and Overland Park. In Michigan, Detroit also has its own top two race for Mayor.
