California Primary Preview Part 1: US House Districts 1–30

California’s 1st Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Doug Lamalfa (R), Gregory Cheadle (R), Audrey Denney (D), Jessica Holcombe (D), Marty Walters (D), David Peterson (D), Lewis Elbinger (G)

Overview: Incumbent Doug Lamalfa isn’t expected to be in too much danger in this Republican-leaning district overall, but does face some well funded Democratic challengers. In 2016’s blanket primary, Lamalfa faced three Republican challengers and took 40% of the support, while fellow party members took 22%. This year he faces just one, Gregory Cheadle, who received just 2% in 2016. An interesting fact is that Cheadle is actually the man Donald Trump infamously referred to as “his African American” at a rally in a 2016. Despite attending this rally, Cheadle is actually running an anti-Trump campaign, which should hurt him among Republicans. I’d be surprised if Lamalfa wasn’t at around 50% when all is said and done. Three of the Democrats running are strong contenders to join Lamalfa in the general, and attorney Jessica Holcombe is the slight favorite at the moment, given her superior fundraising. Teacher Audrey Denney also could have a decent chance at this seat given her high fundraising and education background, while Marty Walters could have an outside shot as well given decent fundraising and strong environmental connections. The final Democrat, David Peterson, has name recognition from past campaigns but not enough support overall, while Green Party contender Lewis Elbinger is fighting a losing battle here.

Prediction: Doug Lamalfa (50%) and Jessica Holcombe (25%) advance to the general election.

California’s 2nd Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Jared Huffman (D), Andy Caffrey (D), Dale Mensing (R)

Overview: This shouldn’t be too interesting of a race. Incumbent Jared Huffman will clearly advance after receiving 68% in the blanket primary last year. Republican Dale Mensing will probably edge out Democrat Andy Caffrey for the second spot like he managed to do in 2014, when the primary consisted of the same three candidates

Prediction: Jared Huffman (70%) and Dale Mensing (20%) advance to the general election.

California’s 3rd Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent John Garamendi (D), Kevin Puett (D), Charlie Schuapp (R)

Overview: This primary only really has one expected outcome, which is John Garamendi and Charlie Shuapp advancing to the general election. The district isn’t blue enough for Puett to receive more votes than Schuapp and Garamendi is a pretty average Democrat who most party members don’t have a desire to unseat.

Prediction: John Garamendi (60%) and Charlie Schuapp (35%) advance to the general election.

California’s 4th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Tom McClintock (R), Mitchell White (R), Regina Bateson (D), Roza Calderon (D), Robert Lawton (D), Jessica Morse (D)

Overview: Tom McClintock could be at an outside risk of losing this seat this year, but will move through to the general election quite easily despite his hardline conservative stances which some moderates don’t like. Mitchell White is the other Republican in the race, but doesn’t seem likely to generate enough support to make the top 2. On the Democratic side, Jessica Morse is the clear favorite at this moment, with a million dollars in fundraising and the state Democratic Party’s endorsement. However, MIT professor Regina Bateson has raised seven hundred thousand and could also win the election, although she will be damaged by attacks for currently working in Boston and not in the district she grew up in. Roza Calderon, an immigration activist running a left-wing campaign, is also running a significant campaign, but will be hurt by allegations of embezzlement from a non-profit she ran. Robert Lawton is also running but is not considered a very serious candidate.

Prediction: Tom McClintock (50%) and Jessica Morse (20%) advance to the general election.

California’s 5th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Mike Thompson (D), Jason Kishineff (G), Anthony Mills (I), Nils Palsson (I)

Overview: Incumbent Mike Thompson will definitely make the general election given the lack of major party opposition, but will be joined by either Green Jason Kishineff or one of two independents. If I had to take a guess, I’d say Anthony Mills might be the most likely to move on, given that he is the only somewhat conservative candidate in the race, making it seem likely Nils Palsson and Kishineff will take votes from each other as they are both left wing progressives. But if I’m honest, any one of them could advance and I wouldn’t be shocked.

Prediction: Mike Thompson (75%) and Anthony Mills (12%) advance to the general election.

California’s 6th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Democrat Doris Matsui and fellow Democrat Jrmar Jefferson are the only two candidates and will advance to the general election.

California’s 7th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Ami Bera (D), Yona Barash (R), Andrew Grant (R), Robert Christian Richardson (G), Reginald Claytor (I)

Overview: Incumbent Ami Bera will easily advance to the general election as the only Democrat in this slightly vulnerable defense for his party, but the big question will be which Republican advances to the general election with him. It seems very up in the air right now, with both candidates looking strong. Yona Barash has an intense background story, having survived the Holocaust as a baby before eventually moving to the United States and becoming a doctor. He is slightly more conservative than his opponent Andrew Grant, a businessman who has the advantage of stronger establishment support in this race. One green and one independent are also running, but in reality it’s down to a two-person race between two Republicans which is really a tossup.

Prediction: Ami Bera (50%) and Yona Barash (25%) advance to the general election.

California’s 8th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Paul Cook (R), Tim Donnelly (R), Marge Doyle (D), Ronald O’Donnell (D), Rita Ramirez (D)

Overview: This is another seat that is more of an outside target for Democrats, and they actually could get shut out of the general election in theory. Incumbent Paul Cook will almost definitely advance, but former Assemblyman Tim Donnelly is a strong enough challenger that he could manage to reach 20% of the support, like he did in 2016 when he came within 1% of Democrat Rita Ramirez for second place. Ramirez is running again, but she is second favorite behind nurse Marge Doyle among Democrats. It seems likely that if a Democrat makes the general, it would be Doyle, but Ramirez’s name recognition could take away enough votes from Doyle to give the second spot to Donnelly.

Prediction: Paul Cook (45%) and Marge Doyle (22%) advance to the general election.

California’s 9th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Jerry McNerney (D), Marla Livengood (R), Mike Tsarnas (AI)

Overview: Three candidates are running for this seat, but at the end of the day, the two candidates in the general will be the major party candidates, Incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney and Republican Marla Livengood.

Prediction: Jerry McNerney (55%) and Marla Livengood (40%) advance to the general election.

California’s 10th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Jeff Denham (R), Ted Howze (R), Mike Barkley (D), Michael Eggman (D), Josh Harder (D), Virginia Madueno (D), Dotty Nygard (D), Sue Zwahlen (D)

Overview: To start with the obvious, Incumbent Jeff Denham is going to advance to the general election in this massive Democratic target. He is somewhat unpopular among some Republicans for being too moderate on immigration but the only other Republican in the race, Ted Howze, hasn’t run a serious enough campaign to take away significant votes from Denham and as a result probably won’t manage to grab second place either unless he gets really lucky. The Democratic favorite at the moment is Josh Harder, a progressive-leaning investor with 1.4 million in funding, three times more than any other candidate in the race. Michael Eggman, the 2016 and 2014 candidate for this seat who lost by just 3.5% last year, is also running and has considerable fundraising and name recognition. However, many establishment leaders in this district believe that the party needs a new voice from their candidate. Additionally, Virginia Madueno and Sue Zwahlen are both experienced candidates who also have a shot at grabbing second place.

Prediction: Jeff Denham (40%) and Josh Harder (15%) advance to the general election.

California’s 11th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Mark DeSaulnier (D), Dennis Lytton (D), John Fitzgerald (R), Chris Wood (I)

Overview: Mark DeSaulnier will easily be the first candidate to advance given his incumbency status. It seems to me that there could be a surprise where two Democrats end up participating in the general election, given significant problems facing Republican John Fitzgerald, who is quite clearly an extreme antisemite. The local GOP has rescinded their endorsement of him, which might give Democrat Dennis Lytton and even maybe Independent Chris Wood chances to make the general election.

Prediction: Mark DeSaulnier (65%) and Dennis Lytton (15%) advance to the general election.

California’s 12th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Nancy Pelosi (D), Shahid Buttar (D), Stephen Jaffe (D), Ryan Khojasteh (D), Lisa Remmer (R), Barry Hermanson (G), Michael Goldstein (I)

Overview: Next, we have a largely inconsequential primary in House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s district, where three Democrats, one Republican, one Green, and one Independent all could make the general election alongside Pelosi. It’s hard to fully predict anything in a district which has very little opposition to Pelosi, but I would guess that Republican Lisa Remmer advances given vote splitting among left-wing opposition to Pelosi

Prediction: Nancy Pelosi (75%) and Lisa Remmer (10%) advance to the general election.

California’s 13th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Barbara Lee is unopposed.

California’s 14th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Democrat Jackie Speier and Republican Cristina Osmeña will advance to the general election.

California’s 15th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Eric Swalwell (D), Rudy Peters (R), Brendan St. John (I)

Overview: Incumbent Democrat Eric Swalwell and Republican Rudy Peters seem very likely to advance to the general election, given that they are the only major party candidates in this race.

Prediction: Eric Swalwell (75%) and Rudy Peters (20%) advance to the general election.

California’s 16th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Elizabeth Heng will advance to the general election.

California’s 17th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Ro Khanna (D), Stephen Forbes (D), Khanh Tran (D), Ron Cohen (R), Kennita Watson (L)

Overview: Some Democrats still don’t like Ro Khanna, who ran from the left and defeated incumbent Democrat Mike Honda in 2016, but he shouldn’t be very vulnerable in this election, as he isn’t facing a strong Democratic challenge. As a result, Republican Ron Cohen will likely manage to take advantage of Stephen Forbes and Khanh Tran splitting the Anti-Khanna vote on the Democratic side and advance to the general election.

Prediction: Ro Khanna (60%) and Ron Cohen (20%) advance to the general election.

California’s 18th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Anna Eshoo (D), Christine Russell (R), John Karl Fredrich (I)

Overview: Incumbent Democrat Anna Eshoo and Republican Christine Russell will almost definitely advance to the general, given the lack of any other major party candidates.

Prediction: Anna Eshoo (65%) and Christine Russell (30%) advance to the general election.

California’s 19th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Zoe Lofgren is unopposed

California’s 20th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Jimmy Panetta (D), Douglas Deitch (D), Ronald Paul Kabat (I)

Overview: Incumbent Jimmy Panetta will easily advance to the general election, but who will finish second is anyone’s guess. The question will end up being whether more Republicans back Kabat or Democrats vote for Deitch over Panetta. My guess is actually the latter, given Kabat’s perennial candidate nature.

Prediction: Jimmy Panetta (75%) and Douglas Deitch (15%) advance to the general election.

California’s 21st Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Republican David Valadao and Democrat TJ Cox are unopposed

California’s 22nd Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Devin Nunes (R), Bobby Bliatout (D), Ricardo Franco (D), Andrew Janz (D), Bill Merryman (L), Brian Carroll (I)

Overview: Devin Nunes might be the congressman who Democrats hate the most, but defeating him will still be an uphill battle in this conservative district. Prosecutor Andrew Janz is almost definitely going to be the Democrat who joins Nunes in the general election, as he has used the anti-Nunes sentiments in the Democratic Party to fundraise over 2 million dollars. Bobby Bliatout is the only other candidate who seems to have a shot at second place, but he’s trailing Janz in fundraising by a bit too much at this point

Prediction: Devin Nunes (55%) and Andrew Janz (30%) advance to the general election.

California’s 23rd Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Kevin McCarthy (R), Mary Helen Barro (D), Tatiana Matta (D), Wendy Reed (D), Kurtis Wilson (D), James Davis (I)

Overview: House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the only safe Republican in California, but still has drawn four Democratic challengers. Tatiana Matta is the slight favorite at the moment, boosted by the endorsement of the California Democratic Party, but any of the four Democrats could realistically take the second spot. Wendy Reed might be the next most likely to win, as she ran for this district and won second place in the 2016 primary. Additionally, if the Democrats get completely diluted, James Davis could always sneak up the middle as an independent.

Prediction: Kevin McCarthy (60%) and Tatiana Matta (20%) advance to the general election.

California’s 24th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Salud Carbajal (D), Justin Fareed (R), Michael Erin Woody (R)

Overview: Incumbent Salud Carbajal shouldn’t have too much trouble with reelection but he still will likely face one of two potentially strong Republicans in November. Justin Fareed, who ran a strong campaign in this seat in 2016, is running again and is the favorite for second place at the moment. Michael Erin Woody is more of an underdog, but has self funded his way into a surprisingly competitive position at the moment. With that being said, Fareed remains the clear favorite for second.

Prediction: Salud Carbajal (60%) and Justin Fareed (25%) advance to the general election.

California’s 25th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Steve Knight (R), Bryan Caforio (D), Katie Hill (D), Mary Pallant (D), Jess Phoenix (D)

Overview: In another of the top Democratic pickup opportunities in California, three Democrats seem to have good chances to move on to the general election along with incumbent Republican Steve Knight. The favorite among the Democrats is Nonprofit Executive Katie Hill, who at 30 years old could end up becoming one of the youngest members of Congress. Hill has fundraised very well, taking 1.4 million dollars in so far, which puts her ahead of Knight thus far. Her strongest competitor is Bryan Caforio, who ran for the seat in 2016 and now has significant support among labor activists. Jess Phoenix is running in a distant third among the three leading Democratic candidates, but still could capitalize on enthusiasm among progressive voters who value the environment.

Prediction: Steve Knight (45%) and Katie Hill (25%) advance to the general election.

California’s 26th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Julia Brownley (D), John Nelson (D), Jeffrey Burum (R), Antonio Sabato Jr. (R)

Overview: In this election, Incumbent Julia Brownley faces a surprise challenge from actor and Trump supporter Antonio Sabato Jr., and the two should be heavily favored to advance to the general election past minor opposition from members of their respective parties.

Prediction: Julian Brownley (55%) and Antonio Sabato Jr. (35%) advance to the general election.

California’s 27th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Incumbent Democrat Judy Chu and fellow Democrat Bryan Witt will advance to the general election.

California’s 28th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Adam Schiff (D), Sal Genovese (D), Johnny Nalbandian (R)

Overview: Adam Schiff will almost definitely be reelected to this deep blue seat in November, given his huge current popularity in his party. More likely than not, he will be joined by Republican Johnny Nalbandian in the general election, who has the advantage of being able to consolidate support of his party. Sal Genovese could always pull off a surprise win and advance to the general election, but his 10% showings in 2016 and 2014 show that he probably doesn’t have enough support.

Prediction: Adam Schiff (70%) and Johnny Nalbandian (20%) advance to the general election.

California’s 29th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Tony Cardenas (D), Joseph Shammas (D), Benito Bernal (R), Angelica Dueñas (G), Juan Rey (I)

Overview: Tony Cardenas has been in the news for the wrong reasons in the last month. The Democratic congressman has been accused of molestation of a 16 year old girl in a recently revealed lawsuit from 2007, an allegation which he strongly denies. The party has more or less stood behind Cardenas and for the moment he has managed to avoid much of the current #MeToo backlash we’ve seen in recent months in politics. The seat is heavily Democratic, so the key thing to watch today is whether Democrat Joseph Shammas can manage to take enough votes away from Cardenas to grab second place in front of Republican Benito Bernal. If Bernal does manage to advance and the story blows up, we always could end up having a Roy Moore/Doug Jones type race in this district.

Prediction: Tony Cardenas (50%) and Joseph Shammas (25%) advance to the general election.

California’s 30th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Candidates: Incumbent Brad Sherman (D), Jon Palzer (D), Raji Rab (D), Mark Reed (R)

Overview: Incumbent Brad Sherman won’t have any trouble getting to the general election, and he will likely be joined by Republican Mark Reed given the split Democratic opposition to Sherman.

Prediction: Brad Sherman (65%) and Mark Reed (25%) advance to the general election.