California special election previews
California’s 25th Congressional District
We start in Los Angeles County with a special election that was triggered by the resignation of Democrat Katie Hill after she was accused of sexual misconduct with a staffer. Hill had just flipped the seat from red to blue in the midterm election in 2018, defeating Republican Steve Knight. Knight attempted to win the seat back in the top two primary in March, but came in third to Democrat Christy Smith. The 25th district, which also stretches into Ventura County, is a combination of suburbs and more rural areas and has been rapidly shifting left in the last few years along with both counties as a whole. Only 1 district, the 23rd, that includes parts of either Los Angeles County or Ventura County, is still held by a Republican.
The 25th District also went to Hillary Clinton by 7 points in 2016, while Hill won by 9 points in 2018, indicating a consistent leftward trend. With that in mind, Democratic nominee Christy Smith, a State Representative who also flipped an area seat in 2018, was initial seen as a clear favorite. However, that advantage has dwindled due to a very strong campaign from former Navy pilot Mike Garcia, the Republican nominee. Garcia has outperformed expectations in fundraising and the switch to completely vote by mail system under a stay at home order has hampered the robust grassroots organizational skills which gave Democrats the advantage last year. Early ballot returns have seen a higher number of registered Republicans cast ballots, despite more registered Democrats living in the district. As of an update this afternoon, the electorate was more or less R+6.5, although this number has been trending down from R+9 over the weekend. With ballots arriving within 3 days of poll closing still being counted as long they are postmarked that number, past trends would indicate that the Republican advantage will continue to shrink past Election Day, putting more value on the ballots of registered No Party Preference voters and how they end up splitting up. Turnout is still at 33%, so far more ballots could appear in the next few days. It seems likely Garcia will be leading as of tonight, but the big question seems to be whether he can hold a big enough advantage to hold off a predicted late surge from Smith. I think it’s too close to call, but if I had to guess, I would peg Garcia to narrowly pick up the seat.
California State Senate District 28
Another interesting special election will be taking place today in Riverside County, a bit to the east of the 25th Congressional district. This seat was held by Republican Jeff Stone, who recently resigned to join the Trump administration. The district is fairly competitive, with Trump winning by just a 2 point margin in 2016. The Republican nominee is State Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez, who represents a large amount of the district in the lower chamber. Melendez is viewed as a strong candidate by the local establishment, but has faced a surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Elizabeth Romero, who is a member of the Riverside County School Board. The lean of ballots returned in this race is surprisingly fairly similar to those in the 25th Congressional district, with a current lean of just R+7, in part due to high Democratic turnout in the city of Palm Springs. This margin has held firm, however, over recent days, which could pour cold water on the idea of a late surge for Romero. The 2 districts don’t overlap at all, so turnout in one won’t impact the other, and interestingly turnout has been higher in Senate District 28 so far, with 36% of ballots returned. It should be a close race, but Melendez is still the favorite.
