Election Day 2021: Everything to watch
While Virginia has certainly gained the most attention in recent weeks, there are quite a few races around the country to keep track of this year. While this list certainly will not include everything, I will do my best to provide a bit of context, and in some cases a prediction, for several of the races on the ballot this year.
Congressional Special Elections
Ohio’s 11th Congressional District: Shontel Brown (D) is heavily favored to defeat Laverne Gore (R) in this 80–19 Biden District located in Cleveland and Akron. Safe D. Brown wins by 60%.
Ohio’s 15th Congressional District: In Central Ohio, Mike Carey (R) is the favorite to hold this seat for his party. While Allison Russo (D) is a strong candidate, it is hard to forsee her pulling. Likely R. Carey wins by 12%.
Florida’s 20th Congressional District: Several prominent local Democrats will face off for their party’s nomination in what appears to be a very open contest.
Virginia Elections
Governor: In the race which everyone has been focused on in recent days, Glenn Youngkin (R) has recently pulled even with Terry McAuliffe (D). This could really go either way, but I think Youngkin has momentum which cannot be ignored. Tossup. Youngkin wins by 1%
Lt. Governor: Hala Ayala (D) seems to be running ahead of the top of the ticket and should be narrowly favored to head off Winsome Sears (R). Tilt D. Ayala wins by 1%.
Attorney General: Incumbent Mark Herring (D) is also running ahead of McAuliffe and similarly is the slight favorite over Jason Miyares (R). Tilt D. Herring wins by 2%.
House of Delegates: VA Democrats will be looking to defend their 55–45 majority in the State House. They will almost undoubtedly lose seats, but the real question is how many. I think that number will prove to be very close to 50 in either direction. Tossup. Republicans gain 5 seats for a 50–50 tie.
New Jersey Elections
Governor: Incumbent Phil Murphy (D) appears very likely to hold his office, although likely by a reduced margin. Jack Ciattrelli (R) does have a slight chance, but it would take something surprising to reduce a consistent 8–10 point deficit in polls. Likely D. Murphy wins by 10%.
State Senate/State Assembly: In both chambers, Democrats are absolutely going to hold their majorities with little turnover. Safe D. Senate net composition stays the same while GOP net 2 seats in the State Assembly.
State Legislative Special Elections
Kentucky SD-22: Donald Douglas (R) is heavily favored to hold this seat over Helen Bukulmez (D). Safe R. Douglas wins by 40%.
Kentucky HD-51: Michael Pollock (R) should easily hold this Trump +58 district in the central part of the state. Safe R. Pollock wins by 60%.
Kentucky HD-89: Timmy Truett (R) will also easily hold a similarly conservative rural district. Safe R. Truett wins by 60%.
Maine HD-86: James Orr (R) faces the tough challenge of holding a Biden +11 district in Augusta against Raegan LaRochelle (D). It should be a close race, but I think LaRochelle picks up the seat. Tossup. LaRochelle wins by 3%.
Michigan SD-8: Douglas Wozniak (R) will almost definitely defeat Martin Genter (D) in this Trump +20 Macomb County seat. Safe R. Wozniak wins by 20%.
Michigan SD-28: Mark Huizenga (R) is the favorite over Keith Courtade (D) in this Trump +14 in the Grand Rapids suburbs. However, an upset is still possible and this will be an interesting one to keep track of for key swing state trends. Safe R. Huizenga wins by 12%.
Mississippi SD-38: Democrats Kevin Butler and Gary Brumfield will face off to represent this deep blue seat.
New York SD-30: Cordell Cleare (D) is extremely favored over Oz Sultan (R) and Shana Harmongoff (I) in this Biden +85 district in Harlem. Safe D. Cleare wins by 80%.
New York AD-86: Yudelka Tapia (D) is unopposed.
Pennsylvania HD-113: Thom Welby (D) is likely to hold this Biden +23 Scranton district over Dominick Manetti (R). However, this will still be an interesting test of swing state trends. Safe D. Welby wins by 20%.
Pennsylvania HD-164: Gina Curry (D) should easily hold this Biden +69 district in the Philadelphia area. Safe D. Curry wins by 65%.
Rhode Island SD-3: Sam Zurier (D) will easily hold this Biden +78 district in Providence over Alex Cannon (R). Safe D. Zurier wins by 70%.
Texas HD-118: This heavily Hispanic district in San Antonio will be a fascinating test of GOP growth with Hispanic voters. While Biden won by 14 in 2020, the first round was roughly a 50–50 split between Republican and Democratic candidates. The top 2 vote getters, John Lujan (R) and Frank Ramirez (D), will face off on Tuesday in an extremely close race which both parties are pouring money into. For more info on this race, the NY Times did a fantastic writeup a few days ago talking to voters in the district! Tossup. Lujan wins by 1%.
Georgia HD-165, Mississippi SD-31: Both deep blue districts will have elections on November 2 but will almost definitely lead to runoffs due to wide fields.
Municipal Races
Several very large cities, including Boston, New York, and Atlanta, will have Mayoral elections today, none of which (except Miami) will be very competitive between parties. Perhaps the most interesting race will be in Minneapolis, where incumbent Democrat Jacob Frey faces significant opposition from the left in a ranked choice ballot. Additionally, many growing suburbs, including Sandy Springs, GA and Overland Park, KS, will have hotly contested races. While the officially nonpartisan races can lead to hard results to interpret, these races will all be good to keep an eye on.
