Mississippi Primary Preview
Governor (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Republican Primary
Candidates: Robert Foster, Tate Reeves, William Waller
Overview: We start with an open gubernatorial race, with incumbent Republican Phil Bryant term-limited and not allowed to run for re-election. The favorite from the start has been Bryant’s Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. Reeves is a fairly hardline conservative, and while he does have impressive fundraising, his brash style has caused some resentment towards him in the state GOP, which opens up some space behind him. His top competition is William Waller, the former Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court. Waller is running as a more moderate option with some establishment background, and could be viewed as the more electable of the two. A third candidate, State Representative Robert Foster, only serves to further dilute the field, although he has mostly been in the news for the wrong reasons, specifically oddly refusing to allow a female reporter to shadow him for a story because of her gender. In Mississippi, the top 2 candidates go to a runoff if no candidate reaches 50% and it looks like that could be the case in this primary. The only recent poll in this race gave Reeves a 41–31 advantage over Waller, with Foster getting just 13%. Overall, I’m inclined to say Reeves falls just short of 50%
Prediction: Tate Reeves and William Waller advance to a runoff with 48% and 35%, respectively
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Michael Brown, William Bond Compton, Jim Hood, Robert Ray, Robert Shuler Smith, Gregory Wash, Velesha P. Williams, Albert Wilson
Overview: This Democratic field is fairly large, but it is essentially a 2-candidate race between Attorney General Jim Hood and Hinds County DA Robert Shuler Smith. Hood is the strong favorite, given his strength with moderate Democrats and his potential strength in a general election, as he has managed to hold on statewide despite the massive shift rightward Mississippi has undergone. However, the one vulnerability Hood could face in the primary could be with black voters. That being said, Shuler Smith doesn’t appear to be an incredibly strong candidate and seems to be running out of spite for Hood prosecuting him 3 times as Attorney General. All things considered, it would be a surprise if Hood does not reach 50%.
Prediction: Jim Hood wins with 60% of the vote.
Lt. Governor (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Republican Primary
Candidates: Delbert Hosemann, Shane Quick
Overview: With Tate Reeves running for Governor, his Lt. Governor position has now opened up, but the resulting primary seems to be a bit of a dud. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann is a massive favorite over Shane Quick, who barely seems to be campaigning.
Prediction: Delbert Hosemann wins with 80% of the vote.
Democratic Primary
State Representative Jay Hughes is unopposed.
Attorney General (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Republican Primary
Candidates: Mark Baker, Lynn Fitch, Andy Taggart
Overview: This is yet another race that has been effected by the Gubernatorial race, with the office open after Jim Hood’s decision to run for Governor. Hood is the only statewide elected Democrat in Mississippi, and this is a major opportunity for the GOP to break the Democratic Party’s century-long hold on the office. Treasurer Lynn Fitch is the establishment favorite, and probably slight favorite overall given her high fundraising numbers, but she still faces two very formidable opponents. State Representative Mark Baker is running as a very strong conservative, which could help him run up the score in white rural areas especially. Baker also has the advantage of having a geological base in suburban Jackson, which can be more establishment-friendly. Former Madison County Commissioner Andy Taggart has also used his connections in the party to surprisingly pull just about the same amount of fundraising as a rivals, and he could be a major dark horse in this race. Likely only one campaign will end tonight, as three strong candidates in one race tends to yield a runoff.
Prediction: Lynn Fitch and Mark Baker advance to a runoff with 35% each
Democratic Primary
Jennifer Riley-Collins is unopposed
Secretary of State (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Republican Primary
Candidates: Sam Britton, Michael Watson
Overview: This race could be the most interesting on the night with two candidates who intersect a lot despite different ideologies. Public Service Commissioner Sam Britton, who is actually the only Republican on the 3-person commission, is the more establishment candidate of the two running, but also has a major populist streak, bragging about his early endorsement of Donald Trump in an effort to secure the conservative base of the party. However, State Senator Michael Watson, a young antiestablishment candidate who is also viewed as a rising star, is aiming to take the hardline conservative vote as well by implying that Britton is corrupt, and could also tap into some of Britton’s establishment support. This race seems pretty jumbled together and it wouldn’t be surprising if either came out on top.
Prediction: Michael Watson wins with 52% of the vote.
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Johnny Dupree, Maraya Hodges-Hunt
Overview: The Democratic side should not be nearly as competitive, with former Hattiesburg mayor Johnny Dupree the heavy favorite over poorly-funded student Maraya Hodges-Hunt
Prediction: Johnny Dupree wins with 75% of the vote.
Agriculture Commissioner (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Republican Primary
Incumbent Andy Gipson is unopposed
Democratic Primary
Rickey Cole is unopposed
Insurance Comissioner (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Republican Primary
Incumbent Mike Chaney is unopposed
Democratic Primary
Robert Amos is unopposed
Auditor (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Republican Primary
Incumbent Shad White is unopposed
Democratic Primary
No Democratic candidates are on the ballot
Treasurer (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Republican Primary
Candidates: David McRae, Buck Clarke
Overview: One more open race to finish things up, again a product of the domino effect started by the Gubernatorial race, as current Treasurer Lynn Fitch is seeking Jim Hood’s Attorney General spot. The favorite is David McRae, a well-funded businessman who took 44% in a 2015 primary challenge against Fitch. McRae boosts a key endorsement from outgoing Governor Phil Bryant, which should be very useful for him in this race. He faces a decent challenge, however, from State Senator Buck Clarke, who notably represents a majority-black rural seat. Clarke could do well in rural areas and push McRae into a close race, but he is definitely the underdog going into election day.
Prediction: David McRae wins with 60% of the vote.
Democratic Primary
Former Bolton Councilwoman Addie-Lee Green is unopposed
