Missouri Primary Previews

US Senate (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Claire McCaskill (incumbent), Angelica Earl, David Faust, Travis Gonzalez, John Hogan, Leonard Steinman II, Carla Wright

Overview: There are a lot of people running against Claire McCaskill, but realistically not one of them has a real shot to even come close to her. Expect her to receive 85–90% of the vote in this field.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Brian Hagg, Josh Hawley, Bradley Krembs, Tony Monetti, Kristi Nichols, Ken Patterson, Austin Petersen, Peter Pfeifer, Fred Ryman, Christina Smith, Courtland Skyes

Overview: Missouri is viewed as one of the Republican Party’s best pickup opportunities, and Josh Hawley has been seen as one of the party’s best potential recruits this year. Hawley is the Attorney General of Missouri, and has been respected by both the establishment and the Trump wing of the party, including an endorsement from the president himself. However, Hawley angered some Missouri conservatives by investigating former Governor Eric Greitens and is also viewed as too establishment-friendly by others. 2016 Libertarian Presidential Candidate Austin Petersen is the most notable of his challengers. Petersen has been known for his extreme libertarian conservatism, gaining some support along the way from the Tea Party crowd of the GOP. While his supporters have been loud on the internet, there isn’t much evidence to show him having a real shot at beating Hawley unless something surprising happens. Tony Monetti has also fundraised a decent amount and should get a few percentage points from antiestablishment voters, which further complicates things for Petersen.

Prediction: Josh Hawley wins with 60% of the vote

Missouri’s 1st Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: William Lacy Clay (incumbent), Cori Bush, Demarco Davidson, Joshua Shipp

Overview: Three candidates are running against William Lacy Clay, and he is viewed as potentially vulnerable to a long shot challenge from one of those three, Cori Bush. Clay was first elected in 2000 to this Saint Louis district, and has been criticized for not being progressive enough and not having enough ties to the district in recent years. Most recently in 2016, Clay received just 62% in the primary thanks to strong challenge from State Senator Maria Chapelle-Nadal. This year, he is being challenged by pastor and community activist Cori Bush, who has gotten some national media attention including a New York Times article. She has also been endorsed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who made headlines by defeating incumbent Democratic leader Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th Congressional District and has since become a major figure among the progressive left. Bush will also be helped by the likely low turnout, as there is no major statewide Democratic primary. That same condition definitely helped Ocasio-Cortez win her race. However, Clay will be helped by the presence of two other candidates on the ballot in Demarco Davidson and Joshua Shipp, who both are legitimate enough to pull some votes away from Bush. Overall, I think Clay holds on, but the margin might be close enough that he chooses not to seek reelection in 2020.

Prediction: William Lacy Clay wins with 55% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Camille Lombardi-Olive, Edward Van Deventer Jr., Robert Vroman

Overview: Three candidates are running in this primary, which will likely have small numbers given the safely Democratic nature of this seat. Camille Lombardi-Olive is the only one of the three to have run a US House campaign in the past. However, that was a Democrat is the 7th Congressional District last year, which seems likely to hurt her in this race. Therefore, it seems more likely that either Edward Van Deventer Jr. or Robert Vroman will win the nomination for this long shot bid. Vroman is a bit more known in area politics, having run for State House a few years ago, and I think he will pull out a win.

Prediction: Robert Vroman wins with 40% of the vote

Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Bill Haas, Robert Hazel, John Messmer, Mark Osmack, Cort VanOstran

Overview: In what will be the one somewhat competitive House race in Missouri this November, five Democrats are trying to receive the party’s nomination. In what’s pretty much a three-way race, Cort VanOstran is the establishment favorite as an average center left Democrat. He is leading the way in fundraising and local establishment support. However, Afghanistan veteran Mark Osmack has generated some significant buzz, especially on the left, which has propelled him into serious contention. However, 2008 nominee Bill Haas’s similar progressive stances could push the election back towards VanOstran’s direction

Prediction: Cort VanOstran wins with 40% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Ann Wagner (incumbent), Noga Sachs

Overview: Ann Wagner is a fairly popular incumbent, and doesn’t seem likely to face any real challenge from Noga Sachs, especially given the fact that Sachs has donated to Democratic candidates in the past.

Prediction: Ann Wagner wins with 85% of the vote

Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Katy Geppert is unopposed.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Blaine Leutkemeyer (incumbent), Chadwick Bicknell

Overview: Blaine Leutkemeyer has a track record of being one of the most average establishment Republicans, and he hasn’t done anything that should endanger his chances in this primary against Chadwick Bicknell

Prediction: Blaine Leutkemeyer wins with 80% of the vote.

Missouri’s 4th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Renee Hoagenson, Hallie Thompson

Overview: In what should be fairly low turnout primary, Renee Hoagenson is the Democratic favorite, given significant financial support for her center left platform considering the deep red nature of the district. Hoagenson would also be Missouri’s first transgender major party nominee, which has earned her some support from national LGBT rights groups. Hallie Thompson could also win thanks to some strong progressive support.

Prediction: Renee Hoagenson wins with 60% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Vicky Hartzler (incumbent), John Webb

Overview: Vicky Hartzler faces John Webb, who also challenged her in 2016 and received 28%. I’d expect him to fare the same this time around, with no major problems in Hartzler’s term.

Prediction: Vicky Hartzler wins with 75% of the vote.

Missouri’s 5th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Incumbent Emanuel Cleaver is unopposed.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Kress Chambers, Richonda Oaks, Jacob Turk

Overview: Jacob Turk has been the Republican nominee for this long-shot US House challenge in Kansas City for each of the last three cycles. This year he faces two primary foes in Richonda Oaks and Kress Chambers. Turk has strong name recognition, and as a result he is the favorite. However, he could be vulnerable to either of the other two, due to some anger among local Republican towards him for running as an independent in a State Senate special election.

Prediction: Jacob Turk wins with 50% of the vote.

Missouri’s 6th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Ed Andres, Winston Apple, Henry Martin

Overview: This will likely be a low turnout primary where any of the three could win, but Winston Apple has the slight advantage right now. Apple boosts an endorsement from Our Revolution and other left groups and also has run for office before, attempting to become Lieutenant Governor of Missouri in 2016. However, any of the three could end up winning this race, which is largely unknown.

Prediction: Winston Apple wins with 45% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Incumbent Sam Graves is unopposed

Missouri’s 7th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Kenneth Hatfield, Vincent Jennings, Jamie Schoolcraft, John Farmer De La Torr

Overview: Four candidates are running for what would be a long shot bid to challenge incumbent Billy Long, and it’s hard to say who will win another small turnout primary. Vincent Jennings is the only candidate to run for the seat before, but that was as an independent and he eventually dropped out. Jamie Schoolcraft and John Farmer de la Torre appear to be the favorites among the other two, with de la Torre leading in fundraising but Schoolcraft having some progressive support.

Prediction: John Farmer de la Torre wins with 35%.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Billy Long (incumbent), Jim Evans, Benjamin Holcomb, Lance Norris

Overview: Billy Long has never received above 65% in a primary, and he faces three challengers today. The strongest might be Jim Evans, who ran against Long in 2012 and 2014 as a conservative Democrat and is now running as a Democrat. Evans could have some crossover support which helps him rise up in the numbers. However, overall I don’t see Long losing.

Prediction: Billy Long wins with 65% of the vote

Missouri’s 8th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Kathy Ellis is unopposed.

Republican Primary

Incumbent Jason Smith is unopposed