North Carolina Primary Previews
District 1 (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Incumbent G.K. Butterfield is unopposed.
Republican Primary
Businessman Roger Allison is unopposed.
District 2 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Linda Coleman, Wendy May, Ken Romley
Overview: Three Democratic candidates are running for this suburban Raleigh seat, one of four districts in the state that could realistically become competitive. Of the three candidates, two are well positioned as mild favorites to win this primary. Keep in mind that in North Carolina, runoffs ensue if no candidate breaks 50%. Former State Representative and two-time candidate for Lieutenant Governor Linda Coleman is currently slightly better positioned to win outright, given her name recognition among Democratic voters. However, Businessman Ken Romley is also running a strong campaign and has significantly outraised Coleman thus far. Romley has focused more on an anti-Trump message, which could help him earn crossover votes. Wendy May, a transgender military veteran, also seems set to pick up a decent amount of support. Therefore, it seems there is a strong possibility of a runoff between Coleman and Romley.
Prediction: Linda Coleman and Ken Romley advance to a runoff with 45% and 40%, respectively.
Republican Primary
Candidates: George Holding (incumbent), Allen Chesser II
Overview: While two Republican incumbents are at risk in North Carolina primaries, the same can’t be said for George Holding in this district. His opponent is military veteran Allen Chesser who is running on a libertarian platform which accuses Holding of being disconnected from the district and part of the swamp. While this may convince some voters, it probably won’t give Chesser enough support to beat an incumbent, especially in a largely suburban district.
Prediction: George Holding wins with 70% of the vote.
District 3 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
No Democrats filed to run for this seat.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Walter Jones (incumbent), Scott Dacey, Phil Law
Overview: This primary should be one of the most contentious we see involving an incumbent. Statistically, Walter Jones votes with the Democrats more than any other Republican, causing a lot of anger among the Republican base, especially in a very conservative district such as this one. Jones faced difficult primaries in the past, receiving just over 50% in 2014 for example. IT contractor Phil Law opposed Jones in 2016, but received just 33% of the vote. Law is running again but is not regarded as the major threat to Jones in this race. Instead, District 4 County Commissioner Scott Dacey has run a campaign attacking Jones from the right, and in doing so has got the support of some national figures including former Presidential Candidates Mike Huckabee and Herman Cain. However, Jones has managed to secure a key endorsement in North Carolina US Representative and conservative House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows, which should help him fend off attacks of being too liberal. Dacey, however, has slightly outraised Jones, although national Republicans might send in money at the last minute to try to save Jones. There is only one piece of polling data available, and its very old at this point. A poll from March shows Jones at 37%, Dacey at 28%, and Law at 15%. While that means Jones could be in danger of being forced into a runoff, who knows whether any of that data is still relevant at this point. With the amount of energy being put into the race, it definitely does look really close, but I think Jones will narrowly avoid a runoff, possibly aided by registered independents who lean left voting in the primary given the lack of a Democratic candidate
Prediction: Walter Jones wins with 52% of the vote.
District 4 (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: David Price (incumbent), Michelle Laws, Richard Watkins
Overview: David Price, a 32-year congressman, shouldn’t have much trouble at all winning this primary, but will face opposition from two different candidates. Michelle Laws, a former Executive Director of the North Carolina NAACP, is actually a very strong candidate, but doesn’t seem to have much of a chance a popular veteran Congressman in Price. A progressive left backed challenger in Richard Watkins is also running, but likely won’t make many inroads.
Prediction: David Price wins with 65% of the vote.
Republican Primary
Translation company owner and advisor to North Carolina Republicans on Hispanic issues Steve Von Loor is unopposed.
District 5 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Denise Adams, Jenny Marshall
Overview: We have yet another battle between a center left Democrat and a progressive left Democrat. Winston-Salem City Councilwoman Denise Adams has been the popular choice of establishment area Democrats, while public school teacher Jenny Marshall has the endorsement of national left group Justice Democrats. It’s a bit hard to predict this election, since it will have fairly low turnout, but Adams has a slight fundraising edge and will be more recognized in the community, which will help in a race where at the end of the day the candidates agree on 90% of the issues.
Prediction: Denise Adams wins with 55% of the vote.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Virginia Foxx (incumbent), Dillon Gentry, Cortland Meader
Overview: Virginia Foxx shouldn’t have too much trouble in this problem, as an average party lines Republican who never has received under 65% in a primary. Dillon Gentry, a telecommunications specialist, is the stronger of the two candidates, talking a lot about working across party lines. However, he doesn’t seem to have a message that will gain traction. Cardiovascular invasive specialist Cortland Meader has even less of a chance, facing a problem of not living in the district, which is pretty much required for an underdog grassroots effort.
Prediction: Virginia Foxx wins with 75% of the vote.
District 6 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Ryan Watts, Gerald Wong
Overview: Two Democrats are running in this race for a strongly Republican seat. Former IBM specialist Ryan Watts is the slight favorite, having received endorsements from many national groups dedicated to Democrats winning the house including Indivisible. However, truck driver Gerald Wong is also running a decent campaign and has talked a lot about his experience in the army in advocating for gun control. Either candidate could win, but Watts does have a somewhat significant fundraising advantage.
Prediction: Ryan Watts wins with 55% of the vote.
Republican Primary
Incumbent Mark Walker is unopposed.
District 7 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Kyle Horton, Grayson Parker
Overview: Two candidates are running in the Democratic primary for this seat as well, but it shouldn’t be too much of a contest, with medical doctor Kyle Horton the heavy favorite to advance to the general election, running with establishment support and a strong platform based on health care and veterans affairs. Grayson Parker is also running but his campaign has been more of a mystery to even local reporters.
Prediction: Kyle Horton wins with 75% of the vote
Republican Primary
Incumbent David Rouzer is unopposed
District 8 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Scott Huffman, Frank McNeill, Marc Tiegel
Overview: This next primary is completely open, with all three candidates having legitimate chances to win. Former Aberdeen Mayor Frank McNeill will have the advantage of experience in local politics, which will help him grow grassroots support. However, a lot of more grassroots support will also go to the two other candidates. Businessman and Navy Veteran Scott Huffman has the message focused on taking back the house, which will help with support from Democrats with especially anti-Trump sentiments. Women’s rights activist Marc Tiegel is the most liberal of the three candidates, and could pick up support from progressives and people who want fresh voices in politics. On the whole, we’ll probably see a runoff, but anything is possible.
Prediction: Scott Huffman and Frank McNeill advance to a runoff with 40% and 35%, respectively.
Republican Primary
Incumbent Richard Hudson is unopposed.
District 9 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Christian Cano, Dan McCready
Overview: In the most important Democratic primary in North Carolina, the final result shouldn’t be close at all. Progressive Christian Cano ran for this seat in 2016, losing by 16 points, but Democrats have their hopes set on Dan McCready to have a chance flip the seat. McCready, a centrist Marine veteran (Conor Lamb anyone?), is a massive favorite for this primary, having outraised even Republican incumbent Robert Pittenger.
Prediction: Dan McCready wins with 70% of the vote
Republican Primary
Candidates: Robert Pittenger (incumbent), Clarence Goins, Mark Harris
Overview: We move on to another vulnerable Republican incumbent in a primary. Robert Pittenger faces Reverend Mark Harris for the second straight year, having only defeated Harris by 134 votes last cycle. Most of the race between the two will once again be arguing over whether Pittenger is sufficiently conservative, which is a bit strange given the fact that Pittenger is objectively a solidly conservative member of congress. However, Harris has argued that Pittenger is not close enough to Donald Trump and too close to big money special interests. There has also been an element of Christianity in the race, with Harris using his religion as a way to try to gain support in a largely Christian area. The establishment has been unified behind Pittenger, making him in theory the slight favorite, but after the last time anything could happen. The only polling data available is an internal from Harris which shows Pittenger up 38–30. Clarence Goins is also running, and could cause a runoff situation in this race.
Prediction: Robert Pittenger and Mark Harris end up in a run off with 48% and 44%, respectively.
District 10 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
IT consultant David Wilson Brown is unopposed
Republican Primary
Candidates: Patrick McHenry (incumbent), Seth Blankenship, Gina Collias, Jeff Gregory, Ira Roberts, Albert Wiley Jr.
Overview: Despite the fact that he is being challenged by five fellow Republicans, make no mistake, Patrick McHenry is not vulnerable here. There’s no real logical explanation for the number of challengers, but there often are a lot of candidates in this district. Both Jeff Gregory and Albert Wiley Jr. ran last year and received just 12% and 5%, but neither have raised significant figures this year, and McHenry received 78% in the primary. Gina Collias has the highest fundraising figures of the rest of the field, but her anti-Trump message won’t help her too much in a Republican primary. Distribution center manager Ira Roberts and floor manager Seth Blankenship are also running for this seat.
District 11 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Scott Donaldson, Phillip Price, Steve Woodsmall
Overview: Another very open Democratic primary in what will likely be a very low turnout election. Phillip Price, a lumber business owner, is the slight favorite to win, having gotten a leg up on the other candidates through calculated attacks on issues that could concern the party’s voters. Scott Donaldson, a doctor, is a moderate former Republican and later independent who joined the Democratic Party to run in this race. Steve Woodsmall, an air force veteran who recently moved to the district five years ago, currently sits on the Transylvania County Planning Board as the only candidate currently holding elected office in this race. It could go any way, but a runoff seems quite possible.
Prediction: Phillip Price and Steve Woodsmall advance to runoff with 45% and 35%, respectively.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Mark Meadows (incumbent), Chuck Archerd
Overview: This won’t be much of a contest at all. Meadows can be a somewhat controversial figure at times in the Republican Party, but Chuck Archerd is not at all a serious candidate, even encouraging people to vote for Meadows after he filed.
Prediction: Mark Meadows wins with 90% of the vote.
District 12 (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Alma Adams (incumbent), Gabe Ortiz, Patrick Register, Keith Young
Overview: Alma Adams is the only slightly vulnerable Democratic incumbent in North Carolina primaries this year, having received just 42% of the vote in a crowded 2016 primary. However, none of this year’s candidates look at all ready to pull off an upset. Asheville City Councilman Keith Young is the only candidate out of the three with a real chance of getting significant support. He is running from the left, which probably will prove him too liberal for the district in the end and will also be hurt by living outside the major city of Charlotte which takes up most of the district. Patrick Register has made some waves as a candidate, but for very weird reasons. He has used dating app Tinder as a way to connect with voters, which could always end up being surprising successful. The fourth candidate, Gabe Ortiz, isn’t even really campaigning.
Prediction: Alma Adams wins with 60% of the vote.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Paul Bonhan, Carl Persson, Paul Wright
Overview: To be quite frank, this GOP primary is kind of a mess filled with weird ideas and inexperience. Carl Persson is the only candidate who lives in the district out of the three, but is also going to face problems for ideas that seem rather liberal, including eliminating insurance companies. Paul Wright, a former District Court judge lives multiple hours outside the district and has previously failed in runs for other US House Seats. Meanwhile, Carl Persson is the candidate who aligns himself with Trump the most, but also has one of the strangest campaign websites I’ve ever seen. He quite literally admits to being arrested for felony assault in the past, while also pushing stories that seem very made up about Hillary Clinton.
Prediction: I have absolutely no idea. I’m skipping the prediction on this one.
District 13 (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Adam Coker, Kathy Manning
Overview: In another district where the Democrats are hoping to flip the seat, national Democrats have set their hopes on businesswoman Kathy Manning as a top range recruit. Manning has already fundraised 1 million dollars and looks set to be competitive in a race against Republican Ted Budd. Farmer Adam Coker has ran in primaries for this district in the past, taking 25% in 2016. However, it seems hard to imagine Manning not getting past him in this primary
Prediction: Kathy Manning wins with 70% of the vote.
Republican Primary
Incumbent Ted Budd is unopposed.
