Pennsylvania Primary Previews
US Senate (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is unopposed
Republican Primary
Candidates: Lou Barletta, Jim Christiana
Overview: Just two candidates are in the race for US Senate on the Republican side. US Representative Lou Barletta, a right of center Republican with the backing of Donald Trump, is the heavy favorite at this point. Barletta also has the support of the majority of the state’s establishment, giving him a good leg up on his opponent, State Representative Jim Christiana. Christiana has some blue collar support in the Pittsburgh area, but will lose some of that support base to Barletta. Christiana might also get some support among moderates who find Barletta too extreme, including some party leaders.
Prediction: Lou Barletta wins with 70% of the vote.
Governor (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Incumbent Tom Wolf is unopposed.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Laura Ellsworth, Paul Mango, Scott Wagner
Overview: This primary has been an interesting one from the start, as Republican frontrunner Scott Wagner, a State Senator, is known for causing controversy. Wagner has a very conservative message, but also has managed to get establishment backing in the race. Businessman Paul Mango is also running from a very conservative position, although his message is a more populist one while Wagner’s is more libertarian. Mango has been helped in this race by his ability to self fund over 6 million dollars and an endorsement from Rick Santorum. As a result, Mango and Wagner have begun to take strong shots at each other, often going after personal events such as business dealings. Meanwhile, attorney Laura Ellsworth has positioned herself as more of a moderate and could sneak in if people get tired of the frontrunners’ negative campaigns. However, at the end of the day, Wagner will still probably win.
Prediction: Scott Wagner wins with 50% of the vote.
1st Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Steve Bacher, Rachel Reddick, Scott Wallace
Overview: In a key Democratic primary in suburban Philadelphia, two candidates seem to have strong chances of winning. Scott Wallace is the presumed favorite, having already raised 2.5 million dollars, most of that through self funding. Wallace is more or less a moderate, but prosecutor Rachel Reddick is running a more centrist campaign. She has raised more from individual donors than Wallace, but still has struggled to keep up with his massive campaign funding. She has also faced criticism for being a Republican up until 2016. National Democrats and most local Democrats want Wallace to win as he seems more ready to compete for a potentially competitive seat. Teacher Steve Bacher is also running, but won’t get much support outside progressives.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Brian Fitzpatrick (incumbent), Dean Malik
Overview: Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick of the old 8th district is running for this seat and shouldn’t have too much trouble getting past Dean Malik, who is saying Fitzpatrick isn’t supportive enough of Donald Trump. That argument might work in some places, but not in a suburban district which Hillary Clinton won.
2nd Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Brendan Boyle (Incumbent), Michele Lawrence
Overview: Incumbent Brendan Boyle of the old 13th district shouldn’t face any real problems with his one opponent, Michele Lawrence, although she might grab some grassroots union support.
Republican Primary
David Torres is unopposed.
3rd Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Dwight Evans (incumbent), Kevin Johnson
Overview: Dwight Evans, who previously represented the old second district, is the only incumbent facing any sort of danger tonight. Evans defeated longtime incumbent Chaka Fattah in 2016, which has caused some in the local establishment to dislike him. Pastor Kevin Johnson is running against Evans from slightly to the left and has used local union support to his advantage. However, Evans seems to be the likely winner despite this, as he is much more well known as an incumbent
Republican Primary
Brian Leib is unopposed.
4th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Madeline Dean, Shira Goodman, Joe Hoeffel
Overview: This seat ended up being the open Democratic seat in Philadelphia after Bob Brady decided not to run for reelection. State Representative Madeline Dean is the favorite at this point, as she has the backing of party leaders and the highest fundraising. However, Shira Goodman, who runs a gun control activism group, is also a candidate with a clear shot at winning, especially if she can mobilize anger over the Republicans and the NRA into votes. Joe Hoeffel also could have a shot, as he used to hold this seat up until 2004. However, at this point, he might be a little forgotten in the minds of local voters.
Republican Primary
Dan David is unopposed.
5th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Larry Arata, Margo Davidson, Thaddeus Kirkland, Richard Lazer, Lindy Li, Ashley Lunkenheimer, Mary Gay Scanlon, Molly Sheehan, Gregory Vitali, Theresa Wright
Overview: This primary for a left-leaning open seat which was recently held by a Republican is an absolute mess. Three candidates seem to be very well positioned right now. Attorney and School Board member Mary Gay Scanlon has led in a few recent polls and also leads in fundraising, running as a slightly left of center Democrat. Prosecutor Ashley Lunkenheimer is running with very similar views as Scanlon and is also viewed as a strong candidate. Meanwhile, mayoral aide Richard Lazer is making inroads by running as a pro-labor candidate. Lazer has most of the support of the Philadelphia part of the district, and could clean up just with votes from there. Molly Sheehan also could have an outside shot as the most progressive candidate, while State Representatives Greg Vitali and Margo Davidson, as well as Chester Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, all will have bases of support in Delaware County. Lindy Li is also considered a candidate with an outside shot.
Republican Primary
Pearl Kim is unopposed.
6th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Chrissy Houlahan is unopposed.
Republican Primary
Greg McCauley is unopposed.
7th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: David Clark, Greg Edwards, John Morganelli, Roger Ruggles, Susan Wild, Rick Dougherty
Overview: In the Lehigh Valley, three Democrats all have a good chance at winning this primary. John Morganelli is by far the most recognizable name of the three. The Northampton County District Attorney has run for Attorney General four times. Morganelli seems like the type of candidate who would do well in this general election, but he has come under fire for being too moderate and not willing to stand up against Trump. As a result, he’s faced two strong foes in Allentown City Attorney Susan Wild, who has the endorsement of Emily’s List, and pastor Greg Edwards, who has the endorsement of Our Revolution. So, in many ways this is a battle between the left, establishment, and moderate wings of the Democratic Party. Edwards has actually led in fundraising so far and has good grassroots support, but whether he can win as a left wing candidate in a swing district remains to be seen.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Dean Browning, Marty Nothstein
Overview: This Republican primary seems to be an interesting contest between establishment and antiestablishment. Lehigh County Commissioner Dean Browning is the pick of much of the local establishment and is a center right Republican, while former Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein is a more Trumpist conservative. Browning is the favorite by far at this moment, but if a surprise antiestablishment wave comes, Nothstein could easily end up winning.
8th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Incumbent Matt Cartwright of the old 17th district is unopposed.
Republican Primary
Candidates: John Chrin, Joe Peters, Robert Kuniegel
Overview: John Chrin is the current favorite in this Republican primary, building off money from self funding on his campaign. His only problem is that he doesn’t have much of a connection to the area, while Joe Peters, who ran for Attorney General in 2016, has much stronger connections. Robert Kuniegel is running as a more Trumpist populist but is struggling to make inroads outside of a small group.
9th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Laura Quick, Danny Wolff, Gary Wegman
Overview: Danny Wolff, a former official in Governor Ed Rendell’s administration shouldn’t face any real challenge in this primary, given a massive advantage in party support and fundraising.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Scott Uehlinger, Dan Meuser, George Halcovage
Overview: This seat opened up when Lou Barletta decided to run for Senate, only one candidate seems to be likely to win the primary to replace him. Dan Meuser, a former administration official to Governor Tom Corbett, is leading by a wide margin in fundraising and also has establishment support and connections. Former CIA official Scott Uehlinger could grab some Trump supporters, likely helped by an endorsement from Sean Hannity, while County Commissioner George Halcovage will have some sort of support base in the center of the district.
10th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson, Eric Ding, Alan Howe, George Scott
Overview: This primary seems very wide open, with three candidates currently having strong opportunities to win. Congressional Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson is the favorite, boosting a key endorsement from Emily’s List. However, pastor George Scott could take a lot of support from an energized base, as he is the most liberal candidate in the race. Eric Ding also could have a shot due to his support among national science groups. However, he doesn’t have a very strong connection to the district.
Republican Primary
Incumbent Scott Perry of the old 4th district is unopposed.
11th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Jess King is unopposed
Republican Primary
Candidates: Lloyd Smucker (Incumbent), Chet Bailer
Overview: Lloyd Smucker, despite his incumbency in the old 16th district, might not have an easy ride through this primary. He defeated Chet Bailer just 54–46 in 2016 when this was an open seat, and with new boundaries, he certainly could face a tough challenge again. However, Smucker is still favored to win, given the lack of a clear side for Bailer to attack Smucker from.
12th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Marc Freidenberg, Judy Herschel
Overview: In such a small electorate as Democrats in this district, either candidate could end up winning this race. Judy Herschel is the slight favorite right now, but not much has served to differentiate her and Marc Freidenberg.
Republican Priamry
Candidates: Tom Marino (incumbent), Doug McLinko
Overview: Tom Marino, incumbent for the 10th district, is not the most popular incumbent ever after he was forced to drop out of the nomination process for running the Drug Enforcement Agency due to conflicts of interest. However, Doug McLinko hasn’t done quite enough to successfully capitalized on that, and as a result probably won’t come that close to knocking off Marino.
13th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Brent Ottaway is unopposed
Republican Primary
Candidates: Stephen Bloom, John Eichelberger, Art Halvorson, John Joyce, Doug Mastriano, Travis Schooley, Bernard Washabaugh, Benjamin Hornberger
Overview: Art Halvorson is one of three favorites, having come with in 2 points of a successful primary challenge of incumbent Bill Shuster in 2016. State Representative Stephen Bloom, having fundraised very well and standing slightly right of center, is the second, and John Joyce, a political outsider who has self-funded is the third. Any of the three could win, while State Senator John Eichelberg could also grab some votes.
14th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Not Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Bibiana Boeiro, Adam Sedlock, Robert Solomon, Tom Prigg
Overview: This district, which was the 18th district before redistricting, is currently held by Democrat Conor Lamb. However, Lamb is running in the 17th district, which should make this a likely Republican gain. Robert Solomon is the clear favorite in the Democratic primary, as he is the only candidate with the fundraising ability to have a shot in the general.
Republican Primary
Candidates: Rick Saccone, Guy Reschenthaler
Overview: Rick Saccone is back. The candidate who received large amounts of criticism after losing to Conor Lamb in a special election in March is now again running for congress. He is the slight favorite now on the Republican side, but State Senator Guy Reschenthaler could also make waves as an alternative to the somewhat unpopular Saccone.
15th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Susan Boser, Wade Jodun
Overview: Either candidate could come out on top in this race, but Susan Boser’s more moderate tendencies give her a slight edge over Wade Jodun at the moment.
Republican Primary
Incumbent Glenn Thompson of the old 5th district is unopposed.
16th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Chris Rieger, Ronald DiNicola, Robert Multari
Overview: Three candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, although only one seems likely to win. Attorney Ronald DiNicola is a heavy favorite to win this primary and try for a long shot win in the general.
Republican Primary
Incumbent Mike Kelly of the old 3rd district is unopposed.
17th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Two Incumbents Running)
Democratic Primary
Incumbent Conor Lamb, who currently represents the old 18th district, is unopposed
Republican Primary
Incumbent Keith Rothfus, who currently represents the old 12th district, is unopposed.
18th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)
Democratic Primary
Candidates: Mike Doyle (incumbent), Janis Brooks
Overview: Incumbent Mike Doyle faces just marginal opposition from Janis Brooks and should easily hold this seat.
Republican Primary
No Republican candidates filed for this seat.
