Tennessee Primary Previews

US Senate (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Phil Bredesen, Gary Davis, John Wolfe

Overview: Former Governor Phil Bredesen has gotten a lot of publicity in recent months for running a strongly competitive campaign as a Democrat in Tennessee. Before officially beginning his general election campaign, Bredesen must defeat two largely unknown rivals in the Democratic primary, which should be relatively easy for him.

Prediction: Phil Bredesen wins with 80% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Marsha Blackburn, Aaron Pettigrew

Overview: US Representative Marsha Blackburn is the heavy favorite on the Republican side, and faces just minor opposition from Aaron Pettigrew. She should easily win, especially given her strong support overall.

Prediction: Marsha Blackburn wins with 85% of the vote.

Governor (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Karl Dean, Craig Fitzhugh, Mezianne Vale Payne

Overview: This Democratic primary is essentially a two man contest at this point. Karl Dean, the former mayor of Nashville, is the favorite at this point, running on a moderate platform which in many ways mirrors that of Bredesen. However, Dean is facing a strong rival in State House minority leader Craig Fitzhugh, who represents a rural constituency in the Memphis area. Fitzhugh is running to the left of Dean overall, which has helped him gather some grassroots liberal support to contend with Dean’s establishment backing. A third candidate, Mezianne Vale Payne, is largely a non factor.

Prediction: Karl Dean wins with 55% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Diane Black, Randy Boyd, Beth Harwell, Bill Lee, Basil Marceaux Sr., Kay White

Overview: In the most contested statewide primary in Tennessee tonight, a female US Representative is once again leading the pack. Diane Black has been a key figure in the GOP establishment for the last few years, chairing the House Budget Committee. However, she has run further to the right in this Gubernatorial election, and despite slightly low fundraising numbers, has been helped greatly by an endorsement from VP Mike Pence. However, she doesn’t have a massive amount of support among the local establishment, as most of that is going to Randy Boyd, a moderate candidate who worked in current Governor Bill Haslam’s administration as Economic Development Commissioner. Black and Boyd are currently tied for the lead in polling averages. Bill Lee is a slightly right of center right businessman who has been advantaged by huge fundraising ability. There is a chance he could sneak in through the middle given how aggressively Black and Boyd have gone after each other. Beth Harwell, the Speaker of the House, should have been a good candidate on paper, but has really struggled to make inroads in what has been a disappointing campaign.

Prediction: Diane Black wins with 35% of the vote.

1st Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Martin Olsen is unopposed

Republican Primary

Candidates: Phil Roe (incumbent), Mickie Lou Banyas, James Brooks, Todd McKinley

Overview: Phil Roe faces three primary opponents, but I don’t expect him to be in any serious danger when all is said and done. He’s a mostly establishment, average Republican member of Congress and got 82% in the 2016 primary. I can’t see him going below 75% this time

Prediction: Phil Roe wins with 80% the vote.

2nd Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Renee Hoyos, Joseph Schenkenfelder, Joshua Williams

Overview: Two candidates have a strong chance at being the long shot Democratic nominee in this deep red district. Renee Hoyos is running as a center left candidate backed by many grassroots groups working against Donald Trump, while Joshua Williams is running a slightly more progressive left campaign. Either could win, but my money is on Hoyos given her grassroots support.

Prediction: Renee Hoyos wins with 55% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Tim Burchett, Jason Emert, Hank Hamblin, Jimmy Matlock, Ashley Nickloes, Vito Sagliano, C. David Stansberry

Overview: This seat opened up when incumbent Republican Jimmy Duncan decided not to run for reelection, and seven Republicans are in the race to replace him. Knox County Tim Burchett, a moderate establishment Republican, was expected to run away with the nomination. But at this point, he has seen significant challenges from the right in what is a fairly red and antiestablishment district. State Representative Jimmy Matlock has the best funding and most establishment support among the remaining candidates, but has faced a lot of criticism from Burchett for missing a lot of days in the legislature. Young Republicans Chair Jason Emert is running from a similar idealogical position to Matlock with significant fundraising, which seems to make Burchett winning more likely. Ashley Nickloes hasn’t run a great campaign, but will be enough of a factor to have that same splitting effect.

Prediction: Tim Burchett wins with 30% of the vote.

3rd Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Danielle Mitchell is unopposed.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Charles Fleischmann (incumbent), Jeremy Massengale, Harold Shevlin, William Spurlock Sr.

Overview: Charles Fleischmann should be safe, despite facing three longshot primary challengers this year. Flesichmann did almost lose a primary in 2014, but that was against a well-funded rival, while this race, like the 2016 primary he took 84% in, does not feature a strong challenger.

Prediction: Charles Fleischmann wins with 75% of the vote

4th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Christopher Hale, Mariah Phillips, Steven Reynolds

Overview: All three Democrats in this race have raised decent amounts of money. Steven Reynolds started as the favorite, having been the nominee in 2016 for this seat, receiving 35% in the general election. However, Mariah Phillips has gained a lot of momentum and managed to outraise Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais. Christopher Hale started further behind the other two, but has pulled closer in recent weeks thanks to strong fundraising in the last few weeks. However, Phillips and Reynolds remain the slight favorites

Prediction: Mariah Phillips wins with 45% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Scott DesJarlais (incumbent), Jack Maddux

Overview: It’s amazing that Scott DesJarlais is still a Congressman. In 2012, just days before the general election, it was revealed he had pressured his mistress to have an abortion. He won that general election by a narrow margin and proceeded to defiantly seek reelection in 2014. He shockingly won that primary by 38 votes, and then one his next primary in 2016 with a 52–43 margin. This year he faces a minor challenge from Jack Maddux, and he probably will extend that margin from 2016 to 60–65%.

Prediction: Scott DesJarlais wins with 60% of the vote.

5th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Incumbent Jim Cooper is unopposed

Republican Primary

Candidates: Jody Ball, Glen Dean

Overview: Two Republicans will face off for the right to make a long shot challenge to Jim Cooper, who has represented the area since 1983. Either could win, but Jody Ball has the slight edge given his previous campaign for the district in 2016. With a Democratic president, this seat could become somewhat competitive. But it won’t in this election

Prediction: Jody Ball wins with 55% of the vote

6th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Dawn Barlow, Christopher Finley, Peter Heffernan, Merrilee Wineinger

Overview: This primary is another crowded fight for a long-shot Democratic nomination in a deeply red district, but only two of the candidates are running highly serious campaigns. Dawn Barlow, a doctor, has gathered some buzz as a Democrat running strongly against abortion rights and being open about that fact. As much as that could help her in a general election in a conservative district, I think that might sink her chances among a partisan Democratic electorate. As a result, I would expect Merrilee Wineinger to win this primary

Prediction: Merrilee Wineinger wins with 40% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Candidates: Robert Corlew, Judd Matheny, Christopher Monday, John Rose, LaVern “U-Turn LaVern” Vivio

Overview: John Rose is the favorite for this open seat, which was vacated by Diane Black as she seeks the gubernatorial mansion. Rose, who worked in the administration of former Governor Don Sundquist, has raised over 2 million dollars for this race, running slightly right of center right with decent establishment support. Robert Corlew, a slightly more moderate former judge, has managed to stay competitive in the race through self-fundraising over 1.5 million dollars, while conservative State Representative Judd Matheny has also stayed competitive through endorsements from the NRA and the Freedom Caucus. However, despite this, the race remains Rose’s to lose

Prediction: John Rose wins with 35% of the vote.

7th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Not Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Justin Kanew, Matt Reel

Overview: Both Democrats in this race boost decent fundraising totals. However, Kanew has had far more time to prepare his campaign, as his opponent Matt Reel spent much of the last year on a military deployment. That will play well with voters Reel can reach in time, but he might not be known enough. Meanwhile, there is also a big idealogical divide, as Reel has been endorsed by many Blue Dog party members, while Kanew is running slightly left of center left.

Prediction: Justin Kanew wins with 55% of the vote.

Republican Primary

State Senator Mark Green is unopposed.

8th Congressional District (Republican Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: John Boatner Jr., Erika Stotts Pearson

Overview: John Boatner Jr., a strongly progressive candidate, looks likely to win this primary, as it’s currently very hard to find that much information on his opponent Erik Stotts Pearson.

Prediction: John Boatner Jr. wins with 70% of the vote

Republican Primary

Candidates: David Kustoff (incumbent), George Flinn Jr.

Overview: David Kustoff is in just his second year as a Congressman, and faces another tough primary challenge after winning just 27–23 last year. The man who got 23% against Kustoff in that primary was George Flinn, a candidate who has run in many different races with high fundraising totals. Flinn is again running in this election and has forced Kustoff into a fight by dropping 3 million dollars of his own money into the race. However, Kustoff received a massive break last week, as Donald Trump chose to endorse him in a tweet, calling him a “champion of the Trump agenda.” As a result, much to the delight of establishment Republicans, Kustoff will likely win.

Prediction: David Kustoff wins with 60% of the vote.

9th Congressional District (Democratic Defense, Incumbent Running)

Democratic Primary

Candidates: Steve Cohen (incumbent), Isaac Richmond, Kasandra Smith, Latroy Alexandria-Williams

Overview: We close with a Democratic primary in the strongest Democratic district in Tennessee. Steve Cohen, the incumbent in this race, has been in the news recently for his strong criticisms of Donald Trump, including advocating for his impeachment. He always has the potential to be vulnerable as a white Democrat representing a district with a decent number of African Americans, but it doesn’t seem as though he will be this year. Isaac Richmond and Latroy Alexandria-Williams have both received under 4% in past bids for the seat, while Kasandra Smith, has run a decent campaign, but not a strong enough one to endanger Cohen.

Prediction: Steve Cohen wins with 75% of the vote.

Republican Primary

Charlotte Bergmann is unopposed.