Texas Primary Mini-Preview

This will definitely be one of my shorter posts but here is a quick overview of races to watch tonight as Texas kicks off the 2022 midterm primary cycle.

Statewide Races

• TX-GOV: The most exciting race to most people will be the Gubernatorial Primaries, though I don’t expect either to be close. Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Former Democratic Congressman Beto O’Rourke should be easily favored to win their primaries. Keep an eye on margin though: If either are kept under 70% that is a slightly concerning showing.
• TX-LG: Incumbent Dan Patrick should easily win the GOP primary, but the Democratic primary will be one to watch, as 2018 nominee Mike Collier looks to avoid being pulled into a runoff with State Representative Michelle Beckley. Either way the nominee will face tough odds to beat Patrick.
• TX-AG: By far the most intriguing statewide race of the night for me, with scandal-plagued incumbent Ken Paxton looking to hold on in the GOP primary over Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the nephew of the 43rd President and deeply conservative Congressman Louie Gohmert. If Paxton does win, this would create a golden opportunity for Democrats to finally break through in Texas. On the Democratic side, there are quite a few candidates sensing an opportunity, with former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski the most likely to grab a spot in a potential runoff.
• TX-Agriculture: Incumbent Sid Miller faces a tough challenge in the Republican primary from State Representative James White, which could potential create the slight chance of a runoff. Susan Hayes is the favorite to become the Democratic nominee.
• TX-LC: In the open Lands Commissioner race, State Senator Dawn Buckingham is in the pole position in the Republican field, but it is a crowded primary for an office many people will not have researched, so I think a runoff is a decent bet. The same can also be said for the Democratic side.
• There are also primaries for Comptroller and a Railroad Commission seat, though neither should be that interesting.

Competitive General Election Matchups in South Texas Decided

• TX-15: By far Texas’s most competitive seat this cycle, this district was drawn to have slightly backed Trump in 2020, with hopes of giving a slight advantage to presumptive Republican nominee Monica de la Cruz Hernandez, who must first stave off a crowded field to avoid a runoff, likely with Mauro Garza. On the Democratic side, tonight’s race will likely not end in a nominee, with many strong contenders vying for 2 runoff spots.
• TX-23: We now move to a much less competitive seat, but one which is still slightly in play. Incumbent Tony Gonzales should easily be renominated in the Republican primary, while Veteran John Lira is the definite favorite for the Democratic nomination.
• TX-28: This is, in my opinion, the most fascinating primary happening today. Conservative Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar is once again being challenged by Attorney Jessica Cisneros, who nearly beat him in 2020. With Cuellar under investigation by the FBI, I think this is Cisneros’s time to defeat him, especially considering strong rallying from the progressive left to get her to win the primary. A third candidate could make a runoff also a slight possibility. The Republican primary is a crowded mess, so that one is unlikely to be decided today, with speculation the runoff winner would be competitive in November.
• TX-34: Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, who moved from TX-15 to this district, is functionally the Incumbent in this primary, although he faces a crowded primary and could be held to a runoff, probably with Laura Cisneros (unrelated to Jessica). Mayra Flores is the Republican favorite and could have a slight chance in November.

Open Safe Seats Give Newcomers an Opportunity

• TX-1: With Louie Gohmert (R) running for Governor, this deep red seat is open for a Republican to virtually clinch a ticket to Congress next year. Smith County Judge Nathaniel Moran is the most likely to do so, but a crowded field makes me lean towards expecting a runoff
• TX-8: In the Republican primary to replace the retiring Kevin Brady (R), Navy Veteran Morgan Luttrell faces former Ted Cruz staffer Christian Collins in what has become an intense showdown between the establishment wing of the GOP and the antiestablishment “MAGA wing.” Specifically, this dynamic has played out a lot between Rep. Dan Crenshaw, who is backing Luttrell and Ted Cruz, who is backing Collins. Either could win or we could see a runoff between the two.
• TX-30: In this race, Democrats will have a rare opportunity to send a new member of Congress from Texas to DC, with longtime Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson retiring from her safe blue seat in Dallas. State Representative Jasmine Crockett led the only poll of this seat with 35%, with perennial candidate and former State Representative Barbara Mallory-Caraway in second with 11%. However, in a deeply crowded field, a runoff is almost certain and it is hard to predict who will qualify for that runoff.
• TX-35: Since Texas gained 2 seats in redistricting, there are two open districts with no incumbents. This is one of the two, with Lloyd Doggett moving into District 37 leaving this one open. This district is an Austin/San Antonio vote sink, so the Democratic nominee will be heading to Congress barring something truly shocking. Left-wing City Councilor Greg Casar is the favorite, though he could be held to a runoff by State Representative Eddie Rodriguez.
• TX-38: The second of the 2 new seats is much more likely to go Republican, with 2020 candidate in TX-7 Wesley Hunt the heavy favorite to win outright tonight, though a runoff still is not completely impossible
• Other races: All other races feature an incumbent in a safe seat who is unlikely to lose. However, surprises can come frequently in the first primaries after redistricting, so it would not be crazy if a few candidates found themselves held to runoff spots, with Van Taylor (R-TX03) and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX37) being two I would point to as possible huge upset contenders.

Connecticut Special Election

• CT HD5: Finally there is a special election in Connecticut, though Maryam King is the heavy favorite as the endorsed Democrat in a Biden +71 district, so I would not get too invested in this one.